Lyev Lion Posted July 17, 2020 Posted July 17, 2020 Three investigators and three town results. The insane investigator could have investigated a scum, a scum framer could of framed their scum mate who was investigated by a sane investigator, as well as the scum might having one of the investigative roles. 8 minutes ago, Wyeth Walrus said: Or the insane, framed result. Or maybe something like this happened and we have three townies? Obviously some scenarios can come about more easily then others.
Wyeth Walrus Posted July 17, 2020 Posted July 17, 2020 Urf! If the monkey’s maths is correct, it’s a low probability case. Much less likely than his simply being sane. I judge there will be some to and fro about which of the investigators is incorrect. Working out why Fergus was unsuccessful may be equally fruitful. 13 minutes ago, Lyev Lion said: as well as the scum might having one of the investigative roles. I judge this unlikely. Why would a scum investigator not simply lie and say their target was loyalist. Or even just not report the result?
Lyev Lion Posted July 17, 2020 Posted July 17, 2020 29 minutes ago, Wyeth Walrus said: I judge this unlikely. Why would a scum investigator not simply lie and say their target was loyalist. It wouldn't be unrisky. "Hey everyone! Let's lynch this guy! Oops! I must've been insane lol! Wa-wa! Why are you looking at me like that?..." 33 minutes ago, Wyeth Walrus said: Or even just not report the result? It'd be better to just truthfully report a townie result on someone. Making freinds is fun right? Just now, Lyev Lion said: It'd be better to just truthfully report a townie result on someone. Making freinds is fun right? Actually now that I think of it this should seriously be added to the possibilities for the investigators and their results.
Caylin Cow Posted July 17, 2020 Posted July 17, 2020 3 hours ago, Lyev Lion said: It wouldn't be unrisky. "Hey everyone! Let's lynch this guy! Oops! I must've been insane lol! Wa-wa! Why are you looking at me like that?..." Yes, but after knowing today's setup, there's a good chance we will have a bloody, nasty night. We still don't know how many scum there are and if they can manage to avoid one of the PGOs, or even if they do but their kill goes through, they still have some extra time if there's two of them currently here.
Pembroke Panda Posted July 17, 2020 Posted July 17, 2020 Great news on the Pig, i guess pure guilt and embarrassment as so easily being caught is what made her never defend herself against my analysis. Really when you're that busted what can you say anyway? Those framer and investigator results are beyond worthless. I sure hope that we have more roles than just these ridiculous random day setups, there is simply no way to know anything solid with them. Tonight is going to be such a bloody mess with all the PGOs too, at least there will be nothing to wonder about the next day - just a bunch of dead animals 2 hours ago, Caylin Cow said: if they can manage to avoid one of the PGOs, or even if they do but their kill goes through Kill should go through, so if a loyalist killer targets a PGO there will be two bodies. At least if things work "normally" which of course is always something that can't be taken for granted in these situations. As others have mentioned, I am also still nervous and unsure how the absorber-like thing works at all and probably will be until this whole thing is solved. It feels like just another wrinkle in the fabric to distract us from the number one task of eliminating the Loyalists first and foremost.
Caylin Cow Posted July 17, 2020 Posted July 17, 2020 25 minutes ago, Pembroke Panda said: Kill should go through, so if a loyalist killer targets a PGO there will be two bodies. At least if things work "normally" which of course is always something that can't be taken for granted in these situations. As others have mentioned, I am also still nervous and unsure how the absorber-like thing works at all and probably will be until this whole thing is solved. It feels like just another wrinkle in the fabric to distract us from the number one task of eliminating the Loyalists first and foremost. I'm not sure normal is even a thing anymoo.
Calissa Cat Posted July 17, 2020 Posted July 17, 2020 Meeeoooww! Fantastic news about Priella! Lynching a scum on day one is awesome. I won't miss the smell of wet dog and the barking, but I will miss Shanley though. 19 hours ago, Fergus Fox said: I tried to frame Calissa last night but was told this morning that I was unsuccessful. Presumably blocked by loyalist scum, but I don't really understand why given it was no secret what I had planned to do last night. 10 hours ago, Keyarra Crocodile said: Back to the framing though, Calissa do you have any insight as to why a frame might have failed against you? Fergus's unsuccessful frame is news to me. The only thing I was wondering about was whether Fergus would actually frame me (after a conversation with Maddock) but it turns out he apparently did and... well, I am at a loss. 15 hours ago, Fergus Fox said: I can't think of any reason other than to make me look suspicious. Maybe they assumed that I wouldn't be the target for an investigation. IDK. Well, call me selfish (I am a cat) but I worry this is more about me than you. I was the only publicly known target for anything last night, maybe there's some redirection thing going on with the trickster? I don't know, because it's not explicitly mentioned, but I feel like I'm still being framed even though you apparently didn't. Meeooow, about the investigation results, our other headache for today. 14 hours ago, Maddock Monkey said: I did some math working on the worst-case basis that there were still 3 scum Thank you for doing that, but there is a fault in your reasoning. According to your statistics, they are all random choices, but last nights actions would not have been random choices, certainly not by everyone. So things that seemed unlikely begin to look a lot more probable than before. It is extremely likely the scum received a framer action - one of us would have mentioned it if we had been given it but scum would keep it to themselves. It is also extremely likely that if there are two scum remaining (and I tend to think that there might be) that one scum would have framed the other and that wouldn't be random. Other things are random, like which of the investigators was insane, but the choice of targets would have been influenced by the investigators opinions of the rest of us. 15 hours ago, Fergus Fox said: Here is one scenario I can see where two of the supposed town are scum: (1) Sane investigation action to you (let's assume you're town) and you investigate me correctly as town; (2) Insane investigation action goes to town, who uses it on a scum, and it comes back town; and (3) Sane investigation goes to scum, uses it on anyone (ultimately it doesn't matter who) and then reports back that one of his/her scum buddies investigated as town. This gives three reported as town, two of which are scum. 8 hours ago, Lyev Lion said: Three investigators and three town results. The insane investigator could have investigated a scum, a scum framer could of framed their scum mate who was investigated by a sane investigator, as well as the scum might having one of the investigative roles. I also agree that two scum are possible in the context of results of three town investigation results, it will just be difficult to work out which and whether it's two, one or zero. Meow.
Fergus Fox Posted July 17, 2020 Posted July 17, 2020 11 hours ago, Keyarra Crocodile said: Regarding the unsuccessful frame action, the Absorber role occurred to me as well. It is still a bit of a mystery how that works in this situation, particularly as it is some kind of variant. But the basis of it is that the user fails and the Absorber takes the action, right? Hmm, how does that work in practice though? I don't really understand it, because the Absorber would be revealed the first time that happened, which doesn't make much sense, i.e., if it were not a one-shot action then the animal-person would know they have lost their action, plus if the action-user always fails when they do it then that also gives the game away. With the set-up as it is, I kinda doubt we even have any more actions than what the Twat gives us and what we know the scum has, although that is not based on anything other than an instinct. Omrom has told us a lot about the set-up but I suppose he could have left something out. Back to the framing though, Calissa do you have any insight as to why a frame might have failed against you? Agreed that we don't know how the absorber role works in practice, but it could be assumed that it was a block. In the case last night, the block didn't make any sense, and that is why we are looking further. In another circumstance, it may have been accepted as just that - a block. I agree that it's probably just what we are told are the roles in the morning for town and scum, but we don't know what the trickster has up their sleeve. 9 hours ago, Wyeth Walrus said: Working out why Fergus was unsuccessful may be equally fruitful. Your thoughts on why the frame failed? 2 hours ago, Pembroke Panda said: Those framer and investigator results are beyond worthless. I sure hope that we have more roles than just these ridiculous random day setups, there is simply no way to know anything solid with them. Tonight is going to be such a bloody mess with all the PGOs too, at least there will be nothing to wonder about the next day - just a bunch of dead animals Kill should go through, so if a loyalist killer targets a PGO there will be two bodies. At least if things work "normally" which of course is always something that can't be taken for granted in these situations. As others have mentioned, I am also still nervous and unsure how the absorber-like thing works at all and probably will be until this whole thing is solved. It feels like just another wrinkle in the fabric to distract us from the number one task of eliminating the Loyalists first and foremost. I agree that the investigation results are not that useful, given all the possible scenarios. Hopefully, they will become more useful as information about players' alliances are revealed over time. Tomorrow's bloodbath may help with that. I don't understand why you are dismissing the frame result (or lack of it) as easily. Any thoughts on what did happen to make it fail? Our task is to eliminate all threats to town, not just the loyalists. Why loyalists as number one and not the trickster and loyalists equally as important tasks? 32 minutes ago, Calissa Cat said: Fergus's unsuccessful frame is news to me. The only thing I was wondering about was whether Fergus would actually frame me (after a conversation with Maddock) but it turns out he apparently did and... well, I am at a loss. Well, call me selfish (I am a cat) but I worry this is more about me than you. I was the only publicly known target for anything last night, maybe there's some redirection thing going on with the trickster? I don't know, because it's not explicitly mentioned, but I feel like I'm still being framed even though you apparently didn't. I thought initially this was about me, but I agree that this is all about you, as I did in the post that you didn't bother quoting. I think we got lucky and stumbled across our trickster, but it seems few are on board with this. Perhaps one of your nine lives just got used up. Where's @Hendrick Horse?
Pembroke Panda Posted July 17, 2020 Posted July 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Fergus Fox said: I don't understand why you are dismissing the frame result (or lack of it) as easily. Any thoughts on what did happen to make it fail? Our task is to eliminate all threats to town, not just the loyalists. Why loyalists as number one and not the trickster and loyalists equally as important tasks? I didn't dismiss anything, I wonder why you are twisting my words to indicate that I am dismissing it. I would guess that either the scum blocked you, the cat was protected (that might stop a frame), or the cat is the trickster and absorbed the frame instead of it doing it's job. Or, you could be lying about it completely and there was no failure at all. Nothing that happened last night helps us today, but just like you said it will help us in the coming days when we know more and can verify through roles or deaths. I know what our task is, but we can't concentrate on everything at once. Multitasking is a lie and trying to figure out everything at once is futile. I'm choosing to try and figure out who the scum are first since there are more of them (we know there were at least two at the start) and then once that is figured out we can hunt the trickster when we have some more solid info at least.
Maddock Monkey Posted July 17, 2020 Posted July 17, 2020 2 hours ago, Calissa Cat said: Thank you for doing that, but there is a fault in your reasoning. According to your statistics, they are all random choices, but last nights actions would not have been random choices, certainly not by everyone. So things that seemed unlikely begin to look a lot more probable than before. It is extremely likely the scum received a framer action - one of us would have mentioned it if we had been given it but scum would keep it to themselves. It is also extremely likely that if there are two scum remaining (and I tend to think that there might be) that one scum would have framed the other and that wouldn't be random. Other things are random, like which of the investigators was insane, but the choice of targets would have been influenced by the investigators opinions of the rest of us. Gee thanks that never occurred to me. I wish I could tell you exactly what the scum did last night but unfurtunately I'm neither scum nor a mind reader. Why would one scum frame another? That way only two people might investigate scum, rather than three.
Fergus Fox Posted July 17, 2020 Posted July 17, 2020 41 minutes ago, Pembroke Panda said: I didn't dismiss anything, I wonder why you are twisting my words to indicate that I am dismissing it. I would guess that either the scum blocked you, the cat was protected (that might stop a frame), or the cat is the trickster and absorbed the frame instead of it doing it's job. Or, you could be lying about it completely and there was no failure at all. Nothing that happened last night helps us today, but just like you said it will help us in the coming days when we know more and can verify through roles or deaths. I know what our task is, but we can't concentrate on everything at once. Multitasking is a lie and trying to figure out everything at once is futile. I'm choosing to try and figure out who the scum are first since there are more of them (we know there were at least two at the start) and then once that is figured out we can hunt the trickster when we have some more solid info at least. Sorry, I didn't intend to twist your words. I honestly thought you were dismissing the results because they were useless. I had a look through the protective roles. Commuter (already mentioned), ascetic and role-stopper (with Calissa as the target) would also explain the failed frame action.
Wyeth Walrus Posted July 17, 2020 Posted July 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, Maddock Monkey said: Why would one scum frame another? That way only two people might investigate scum, rather than three. Urf! Last night there were only two scum left. Assuming Priella didn’t draw the frame, it would have been a case of one scum framing the other. I can’t make a judgement on what they were thinking, too many variables. 1 hour ago, Fergus Fox said: Your thoughts on why the frame failed? Urf! whilst I was considering how to answer this, the panda has listed the possibilities I would have laid out. on the assumption that the scum did use a frame on their partner, who then killed our friend the sheepdog, they probably aren’t responsible for a block on Fergus. I judge there’s something weird with Clarissa, the trickster absorber perhaps, given how the result was reported. Blocks usually just get reported as successfully performed, even if the action doesn’t actually occur.
Pembroke Panda Posted July 17, 2020 Posted July 17, 2020 14 minutes ago, Wyeth Walrus said: Blocks usually just get reported as successfully performed, even if the action doesn’t actually occur. This statement is confusing me, it doesn't seem correct. Maybe I'm misunderstanding you though. If the Fox was blocked, his action would be reported back as unsuccessful. That's normally (there's that word again) the way things work. If the Cat absorbed it or was protected or some other reason the frame didn't actually happen, then i suppose it might be reported back as successful to the Fox because his action did work but the Cat didn't get the intended result - but I could also see it being reported as unsuccessful in those cases as well. It would be totally up to the one who was reporting it. Not sure it's something to focus on in this case. Over time, we might be able to learn more if things are reported back consistently one way or another.
Fergus Fox Posted July 17, 2020 Posted July 17, 2020 30 minutes ago, Wyeth Walrus said: on the assumption that the scum did use a frame on their partner, who then killed our friend the sheepdog, they probably aren’t responsible for a block on Fergus. It would also require an assumption that the scum would not be able to double up on the action. Would that hold, given the framer actions were compulsive? Would they have to give up the block or the kill to use the framer action? What would be the risk to them of letting the framer action be random, given we're not in a position to verify at this stage whether the results are accurate? Short term it would be ok, but it might backfire down the track. 30 minutes ago, Wyeth Walrus said: Blocks usually just get reported as successfully performed, even if the action doesn’t actually occur. I agree this doesn't make sense. The block would be reported as successful or not to the person doing the blocking, not the target of the block. The issue is why was the frame unsuccessful.
Hinckley Posted July 17, 2020 Author Posted July 17, 2020 Voting is now open. With 11 players, it takes 6 votes to achieve a lynch. 48 hours remain in Day Two.
Maddock Monkey Posted July 18, 2020 Posted July 18, 2020 Ginny Hendrick was telling me he was certain he’d be (a) framed and (b) investigated. He must be breathing a sigh of relief right now, but is it the relief of a safe townie or the relief of an unscrutinized scum? Fergus already pointed out our motormouth has been quiet today, so I want to turn up the heat. Vote: Hendrick Horse
Wyeth Walrus Posted July 18, 2020 Posted July 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Fergus Fox said: It would also require an assumption that the scum would not be able to double up on the action. Would that hold, given the framer actions were compulsive? Would they have to give up the block or the kill to use the framer action? What would be the risk to them of letting the framer action be random, given we're not in a position to verify at this stage whether the results are accurate? Short term it would be ok, but it might backfire down the track. Urf! I surmise There’s no huge risk for the scum letting the frame be random. But then we need to let go the idea that they framed one of themselves in case of investigation. If so, one of the low probability cases occurred, the two sane investigators got town and the insane investigated a scum or the insane investigated the same animal the random frame landed on. Or as Lyev suggested, the scum actually had an investigate, not a frame, and truthfully reported their randomly targeted result in order to make friends. 23 minutes ago, Maddock Monkey said: ,Ginny Hendrick was telling me he was certain he’d be (a) framed and (b) investigated. So, after drawing votes yesterday, avoiding the Priella lynch, though he was around to do change and worried about not lynching, he preps you for the case where he investigates as scum? And today is “busy” and says nothing for half the day... not to mention trying to omfgus me. Yeah.. I judge I will vote: Hendrick Horse
Pembroke Panda Posted July 18, 2020 Posted July 18, 2020 Oh Omrom, you little scamp! How can I be mad though, you are soooo adorable I just hope the ship doesn't fall apart with all your hording. I have a collection of old ship supports, I'll see if I can dig them out and see if the captain would like to borrow them. Everyone told me to toss them out, but I knew they'd come in handing some day. For all the reasons I listed yesterday Vote: Hendrick Horse
Evren Elephant Posted July 18, 2020 Posted July 18, 2020 Is anyone else craving dragon despite having a herbivorous diet? I can't be the only one. I want to see if the horse has any excuses in the next 4 hours or so before I call it a night, but if not then he's getting my vote.
Maddock Monkey Posted July 18, 2020 Posted July 18, 2020 I've had some more time to think about what's been posted and I'm not happy. Bad animals! Two legs good four legs bad! 8 hours ago, Pembroke Panda said: Those framer and investigator results are beyond worthless. I sure hope that we have more roles than just these ridiculous random day setups, there is simply no way to know anything solid with them. Tonight is going to be such a bloody mess with all the PGOs too, at least there will be nothing to wonder about the next day - just a bunch of dead animals Excuse me but I don't think the investigation results are worthless. I mean it looks different if you're not one of the claimed investigators, but being me I have 100% certainty I'm town and not fucking with you. You're right that it looks like tonight will be a bloodbath with the three PGOs plus compulsive vig and compulsive scum kill. 14 hours ago, Lyev Lion said: Actually now that I think of it this should seriously be added to the possibilities for the investigators and their results. 1 hour ago, Wyeth Walrus said: Or as Lyev suggested, the scum actually had an investigate, not a frame, This isn't exactly a new idea - Fergus first proposed it while I was busy doing my maths, then I entertained it while re-doing my calculations because I hadn't thought about the possibility of a scum investigator. It's miraculous how this somehow ends up being Lyev's insightful suggestion. 19 hours ago, Fergus Fox said: Two things that came to mind when you said immunity: commuter and absorber. I don't really see us having the former given what we know of the set up so far. Unless is it a means of protecting the third party? We know from the gorgeous Omrom that the trickster has a diabolical variation of the absorber role. Would I have been unsuccessful if Calissa absorbed my role?? Why bring up the absorber role? You've managed to put everyone on a different track and this puts me at the opposite of ease. How do we know the Trickster has some variation of an absorber role? When I asked our captain how the results of an investigation shake out, he said I'd get Defector, Loyalist or Third Party. As it happens, my result for Fergus was specifically Defector, but to me the possibility of even getting a result on the trickster third party means that an absorber is not at play here. Right now I'm at P(Fergus Town|Town Result)~0.85, along with Fergus Good Ideas: I and Fergus Bad Ideas: I. idk even what to think anymore. It's not surprising that Wyeth Earp has voted for Hendrick, but it makes me uneasy that Pembroke has so happily hopped on board too.
Hayleigh Hippo Posted July 18, 2020 Posted July 18, 2020 1 minute ago, Maddock Monkey said: It's not surprising that Wyeth Earp has voted for Hendrick, but it makes me uneasy that Pembroke has so happily hopped on board too. Well don't be too shocked if I do the same eventually. I did vote for him yesterday and I wouldn't say his activity, or in this case, inactivity today has improved that situation. As for the absorber thing, didn't the little green snot say that the trickster is one? You know who else is green? Uh huh...
Maddock Monkey Posted July 18, 2020 Posted July 18, 2020 1 minute ago, Hayleigh Hippo said: As for the absorber thing, didn't the little green snot say that the trickster is one? You know who else is green? Uh huh... No, I don't get that at all. But on the other hand I do get: On 7/12/2020 at 8:34 PM, Omrom said: The Scum wiww have theiw standawd bwock and factionaw kiww. Have fun! On 7/16/2020 at 7:40 PM, Omrom said: The Scum wiww have theiw standawd bwock and factionaw kiww. Theiw kiww wiww awso be compuwsive tonight! Have fun! So it seems fairly clear to me that last night, had the scum enjoyed a frame or a kill or both, they'd have been able to do that in addition to blocking someone (presumably Fergie) and killing Shanley Pavilion. Not sure why some (ahem Wyeth) are wondering how the scum could have used several actions: 4 hours ago, Wyeth Walrus said: on the assumption that the scum did use a frame on their partner, who then killed our friend the sheepdog, they probably aren’t responsible for a block on Fergus. forgive me if I'm wrong but I feel I'm not reading into anything; merely taking what we have at face value. 14 hours ago, Lyev Lion said: Wa-wa! HAM SANDWICH!
Pembroke Panda Posted July 18, 2020 Posted July 18, 2020 10 minutes ago, Maddock Monkey said: It's not surprising that Wyeth Earp has voted for Hendrick, but it makes me uneasy that Pembroke has so happily hopped on board too. Are you kidding me right now? I spelled out all my reasoning about why the horse is scum yesterday and explained why I voting for the pig instead. For someone that does a lot of strange math, you sure don't like to pay attention. Hopped on board? :shaking_my_damn_head: 11 minutes ago, Maddock Monkey said: compulsive scum kill. Where does it say the scum kill is compulsive? Interesting that you say this, like you have some insider information. Omrom said the kill was compulsive last night. Did he say that tonight? Maybe I missed it.
Hayleigh Hippo Posted July 18, 2020 Posted July 18, 2020 Just now, Maddock Monkey said: No, I don't get that at all. There!
Maddock Monkey Posted July 18, 2020 Posted July 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, Pembroke Panda said: Did he say that tonight? Maybe I missed it. On 7/16/2020 at 7:40 PM, Omrom said: The Scum wiww have theiw standawd bwock and factionaw kiww. Theiw kiww wiww awso be compuwsive tonight! Have fun! There! Just now, Hayleigh Hippo said: There! As someone for whom reading (rather than probability) is a strong suit, reading is not a strong suit. Perhaps I should stop bidding hearts.
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