Trekkie99 Posted January 16, 2020 Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/14/2020 at 12:10 PM, MAB said: I don't think it is possible to define what the LEGO community is, let alone determine its size. Expand Exactly. So if you did want to somehow determine the size, you'd have to set up some requirements for what qualifies as a Lego fan, but who/what dictates what requirements are and aren't essential??? It's like dictating what's art. On 1/14/2020 at 6:38 PM, Lego David said: I don't mean everything, I just mean following in general with the new products. Or in other words, having a decent knowledge about what it's currently happening with LEGO. Expand I usually don't go out of my way to learn about new Lego sets. If one wanted a number for the amount of people who follow those things, that's fine, but it would be disregarding a lot of fans. Quote
AV_Guy Posted January 17, 2020 Posted January 17, 2020 Well lego gross sales 2018 was bit over 5 billion US. With an operating profit of 20% Also consider that is what they sold to retailer stores. Not what we paid. Quote
icm Posted January 28, 2020 Posted January 28, 2020 From Zusammengebaut at Toy Fair: Karen Pascha-Gladyshev, Managing Director of LEGO GmbH: “ Every tenth euro is earned by adult LEGO fans! “Finally we have a number! Quote
Driver Brandon Grumman Posted January 28, 2020 Posted January 28, 2020 On 1/28/2020 at 2:11 PM, icm said: From Zusammengebaut at Toy Fair: Karen Pascha-Gladyshev, Managing Director of LEGO GmbH: “ Every tenth euro is earned by adult LEGO fans! “Finally we have a number! Expand ....and what percentage would every tenth euro make? Quote
icm Posted January 28, 2020 Posted January 28, 2020 Of people, I have no idea. Of revenue, well, ten percent! Quote
Toastie Posted January 28, 2020 Posted January 28, 2020 (edited) In terms of operating profit: https://www.statista.com/statistics/292286/lego-group-operating-profit/ and http://kidscreen.com/2019/02/27/lego-revenue-increases-4-in-fiscal-2018/ 1,600 Million USD / 10 = 160 Million USD Revenue according to the latter link was: 5,500 Million USD / 10 = 550 Million UDS When each AFOL spends 550 USD per year, then there are 1 Million AFOLs. According to this stone-old link from 2009: https://www.1000steine.de/de/gemeinschaft/forum/?entry=1&id=206987 AFOLs and TFOLs spend 1000 USD per year on LEGO. Which gets the number to very roughly 0.5 Million AFOLs. I bet there are better numbers though ... Best Thorsten Edited January 28, 2020 by Toastie Quote
The Reader Posted January 28, 2020 Posted January 28, 2020 (edited) On 1/28/2020 at 2:54 PM, Toastie said: operating profit Expand I think she talks about sales, turnover or revenue, not about profit: "Jeder 10. Euro für LEGO Produkte wurde für einen Erwachsenen ausgegeben." In the end, it might be the same result as 10 % are 10 % no matter if before or after costs. And I think she speaks about Germany resp. the German market only. https://twitter.com/Zusammengebaut/status/1222145653578616834/photo/1 Edited January 28, 2020 by The Reader Quote
Toastie Posted January 28, 2020 Posted January 28, 2020 On 1/28/2020 at 4:00 PM, The Reader said: I think she talks about sales, turnover or revenue, not about profi Expand Hehee - yes noticed that and recalculated a minute ago ... thanks for the heads up though! Best Thorsten Quote
The Reader Posted January 28, 2020 Posted January 28, 2020 You're very welcome. Didn't want to insult you, but just being precise. Quote
The Reader Posted January 29, 2020 Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/28/2020 at 2:54 PM, Toastie said: In terms of operating profit: https://www.statista.com/statistics/292286/lego-group-operating-profit/ and http://kidscreen.com/2019/02/27/lego-revenue-increases-4-in-fiscal-2018/ 1,600 Million USD / 10 = 160 Million USD Revenue according to the latter link was: 5,500 Million USD / 10 = 550 Million UDS When each AFOL spends 550 USD per year, then there are 1 Million AFOLs. According to this stone-old link from 2009: https://www.1000steine.de/de/gemeinschaft/forum/?entry=1&id=206987 AFOLs and TFOLs spend 1000 USD per year on LEGO. Which gets the number to very roughly 0.5 Million AFOLs. I bet there are better numbers though ... Best Thorsten Expand I repeat myself: On 1/28/2020 at 4:00 PM, The Reader said: And I think she speaks about Germany resp. the German market only. Expand I don't know if the "10 % ratio" is applicable to other countries. That's why I would be careful in applying this ratio to the worldwide revenue. Quote
Toastie Posted January 29, 2020 Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 2:29 PM, The Reader said: I don't know if the "10 % ratio" is applicable to other countries. That's why I would be careful in applying this ratio to the worldwide revenue Expand Sure. And this is why I pulled up that 2009 link from 1000steine. In this contribution, a poll was made by TLG themselves. As far as I know, this poll was not restricted to Germany. It 11 years old, but I was surprised to find a rather coherent picture: When you calculate with the German 10% fraction you arrive at 1 Million AFOLs should the spend about 500€ (= roughly USD). TLGs number for the average 2009 AFOL investment was 1000 USD. When you further speculate that the average spending of money for LEGO in the developed countries (this is where TLG pulls it off) within a factor of 3 the same ... we arrive at anything between 0.2 Mio and 3 Mio AFOLs. I personally believe the 0.2 is too low. I also believe that it seems to be a bit of a stretch to talk about 10 Mio ... But all this is (a little educated) speculation. Was fun to do - to get at least an idea. I'd say there are 1,064,359 (as of now) AFOLs. Anyone challenging that? All the best Thorsten Quote
The Reader Posted January 29, 2020 Posted January 29, 2020 I agree - it's speculation and it's fun. Some more thoughts: She speaks of "spent for an adult", not "spent for or by an AFOL". "Adult" might also include "non-AFOLs", so the 10 %-quota refers to AFOLs and non-AFOLs, which means that on the one hand the AFOL-quota might be less than 10 %. On the other hand I speculate that the 10 %-quota might be too low for the Chinese or even the Asian market. I could imagine that LEGO is bought in China and the rest of Asia more often by adults for themselves as a kind of a status symbol because it's an European product. I think that 1,000 USD/EUR p.a. might be too low for an average AFOL. According to this site 1,000 EUR in 2009 are about 1,145 EUR nowadays. But even this feels as if it might be too low. But I have no idea how to get a more precise figure. But after all, a number between 500,000 and 1,000,000 AFOLs worldwide seems not too bad. Pure speculation ... Quote
Driver Brandon Grumman Posted January 29, 2020 Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/28/2020 at 2:54 PM, Toastie said: AFOLs and TFOLs spend 1000 USD per year on LEGO. Expand Finally someone else other than me acknowledges the TFOL side. I think a lot of us often forget that side. Lego seems to cater a lot to them too, thus themes like DC, Ninjago and Chima. Quote
Toastie Posted January 29, 2020 Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 8:18 PM, Brandon Pea said: Finally someone else other than me acknowledges the TFOL side. I think a lot of us often forget that side. Expand Wait - no! Within the upper class of the developed countries (as the middle class is steadily and at increasing rates dissolving ...), I truly believe that the TFOL market must be considerable. TFOL as is young folks buying LEGO sets on their own. The prerequisites are: Enough money available and interest in LEGO. I sure do believe this is a sizeable fraction. But did anyone challenge that? All the best Thorsten Quote
Driver Brandon Grumman Posted January 29, 2020 Posted January 29, 2020 This is pure speculation AFOLs - 10% KFOLs - 70% TFOLs - 20% Quote
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