Anyone have any guess on Lego Ideas set production numbers?

[LegoDW]

Was checking out the Lego Ideas page and started wondering....how many of these sets (once approved) do they actually produce.  Knowing needing 10,000 votes to get approved...figure 20% will actually purchase the set, that 2000 units. Once released figure the sales are limited to AFOL mostly....so maybe 25,000 ish.  That puts sales at around 25,000 to 30,000 sets produced.  

Feeling this number is too low, This is the stuff that keeps me up at night.

Additional:

So popular cheaper sets, like the ship in the bottle....maybe 100,000 sets sold.  Same for the Fishing Shack.

Not as popular sets, maybe 25,000 more in line.

 

 

 

[MAB]

I think it varies depending on the subject - Disney ones will have a large run for example. Unlicensed probably significantly lower. I imagine it has also gone up over time. Some of the earlier sets had second production runs and the set was out of stock for a while (eg Research Institute, Exosuit) even though it later came back into stock. Exosuit was probably over produced at it hung around a long time and need to heavily advertised (the decommissioning  campaign) and discounted. Some had fixed runs no matter how popular they were - for example, the mars rover sold out quickly (in days) in the US and was not restocked, although was a much slower seller (in months) elsewhere.

 

[MAB]

One retail set we do know for sure is the limited edition crawler.

LEGO advertised that as 20,000 copies only before it went on sale and so made the market go wild for it, essentially doubling in value on the day of purchase.