Need some advice on how to collect/invest in LEGO

[gundamz]

I am an AFOL who enjoys playing with LEGO. That said, I am interested in starting a collection that will hopefully at least retain its value in the event that I need or want to sell off my collection in the future. (I'm not trying to treat LEGO like a lottery ticket. I'm just trying to break even at least.)

I would like some advice on how to collect/invest in LEGO. I have a few questions to start the discussion, though any advice you can give is appreciated.

1. Are there generally certain sets that tend to hold their value better? e.g. licensed sets vs. Creator sets, big sets vs. small sets, sets featuring buildings vs. sets featuring vehicles. I only buy sets from themes that I am interested in, but are there any themes that tend to hold their value better?

2. Conversely, are there generally certain sets that tend not to hold their value well? Are there any themes that tend not to hold their value well?

3. Are more expensive sets usually better for investing/collecting or no?

4. How much do the minifigures in a particular set matter? That is, if a set contains minifigures that are only available in that set, would that set be able to keep its value better? Also, does it matter whether the minifigures are well known (e.g. Darth Vader, Harry Potter, Iron Man), not as well known or not well liked (e.g. Savage Opress from Star Wars, Dolby the elf from Harry Potter), or generic (e.g. figures from Creator sets)?

5. Would the fact that a set is more of a niche item help or hurt its value, generally? (e.g. Back to the Future - perhaps a smaller number of people who might be interested in it, but those who are interested might be willing to pay more?)

6. If I open a set, build it, but keep all the pieces in good condition, will the set still be able to keep most of its value?

7. Is it better to collect a bunch of sets from the same theme (e.g. Star Wars) or get sets from various themes? Right now, I tend to do the latter, so my collection has some Stormtroopers, some Marvel Superheroes, Batman, and some Ninja Turtles.

Edited February 27, 2016 by gundamz

[Sven F]

I am not an investor but find this aspect fascinating, and like most afols, i like to believe that i can some day get all my money back if needed, so i follow a lot of information on value.

I think you can answer most of your questions yourself, but pure facts without some psychology and lucky guessing at future trends hold little value in the long run, in my opinion.

Currently anything with a cult following licence will do much better than most unlicensed, an exeption to this are sets which are part of a larger collection like modulars or cmf. What nobody talks about is LEGO interest inflation. Things like SW is risky because updated sets are released eventually and only a very small niche will care about the old.

Another thing nobody mentions is LEGO popularity will eventually reach critical mass and it's anyone's guess if we are currently near the top, all we know is its never had a larger following which means there have never been more sets in circulation and demand has to follow supply for a long time which is getting increasingly harder with LEGO distracting your secondary market with more, better and bigger sets every year.

There is also a hugely increasing number of people trying to turn around sets for profit thinking this will be the new green grocer.

As a last resort, as consolation to thinking your collection will maintain its value, there is bricklink part-out which is always a secure way out as parts will always be parts, but it involves more time and work and relies on demand for elements keepin steady as well as the assumption that TLG won't ever try to claim that market themselves. (b&p?)

I think large scale investment is getting watered down and risky. If i was to do this, i'd focus on quick turnover of certain polybags, cmf's, seasonals and select ideas sets, and that is purely due to supply time and location inconsistency by TLG and very impatient and/or uninformed and panicky customers.

As for personal collections, i would just keep buying whatever i like and not worry about value, if it ever comes down to selling, you are bound to have hits and misses anyway you plan it.

Edited February 27, 2016 by Sven F

[MAB]

You are late to the party. There have been so many articles on investment over the past 18 months that competition is now massively increased.

You have to go with gut instinct when it comes to what to buy.

'Used' will always be second rate to sealed. They used to command high prices when sealed was not available. But now sealed sets are available on the secondary market for most sets, often in large numbers, this will effect used prices. If you want to invest, don't open.

[paul_delahaye]

Althought the large set market might be watered down, it's still not bad if your happy to put them away and forget about them for 5 years. I still don't think you can go wrong with flagship Technic, Large Starwars sets and direct to customer sets. I try to buy the Technic flagships in 3 for 2 offers and I'm usually succesful, this allows me to build the A and B model for myself and 1 set to put away but it also means the buy price is 33% lower than RRP.

I'll give you some examples of sets I've put away, there are not Mega profits to te made, but I can see somethings which are popular like Unimog, is not making big profits currently as the market is flooded.

3 x 10219 Maesrk Train - RRP £91.99 - Average Bricklink Price for New Set £175.28

1 x 8043 Excavator - RRP £142.99 (I paid around £105 in 3 for 2 at Tesco) - Average Bricklink Price for a New Set £293.30

1 x 8110 Unimog - RRP £154.99 (I paid £110 in 3 for 2 at Argos) - Average Bricklink Price for a New Set £164.16

2 x 8421 Mobile Crane - RRP £89.99 (I picked these up for only £45 when Argos sold them off) - Average Bricklink Price for a New Set £235.24

It's really a gamble, a time machine would have been handy to go back to the 80's and pick up those 12v train sets!

[nerdsforprez]

Althought the large set market might be watered down, it's still not bad if your happy to put them away and forget about them for 5 years. I still don't think you can go wrong with flagship Technic, Large Starwars sets and direct to customer sets. I try to buy the Technic flagships in 3 for 2 offers and I'm usually succesful, this allows me to build the A and B model for myself and 1 set to put away but it also means the buy price is 33% lower than RRP.

I'll give you some examples of sets I've put away, there are not Mega profits to te made, but I can see somethings which are popular like Unimog, is not making big profits currently as the market is flooded.

3 x 10219 Maesrk Train - RRP £91.99 - Average Bricklink Price for New Set £175.28

1 x 8043 Excavator - RRP £142.99 (I paid around £105 in 3 for 2 at Tesco) - Average Bricklink Price for a New Set £293.30

1 x 8110 Unimog - RRP £154.99 (I paid £110 in 3 for 2 at Argos) - Average Bricklink Price for a New Set £164.16

2 x 8421 Mobile Crane - RRP £89.99 (I picked these up for only £45 when Argos sold them off) - Average Bricklink Price for a New Set £235.24

It's really a gamble, a time machine would have been handy to go back to the 80's and pick up those 12v train sets!

I kinda disagree with the above. Being a Technic afectionado, I am not sure the Technic flagships do that well. We are seeing such great new flagships (check out the Technic forum) and more adult-themed, that even the 8110 (unimog) is not that special anymore. When it first came out, it was (i think) the first licensed Technic set and the first one over 2000 pieces. Now we have one coming out at nearly 4,000 pieces. Licensed sets all over the place as well. Adult builders of Technic found many many things wrong with the set. 8421 was replaced with 42009, but better. Just like your argument with SW sets, that they can be replaced, that is exactly what happened with 8421. Yes, BL average prices are X, but that is not the number to be looking at. People can set the prices at whatever they want. You have to look and see how much and how often it is ACTUALLY being sold. 8421 only sold 8 in the past 6 months. And not anywhere near their current average price. average price was around $330. Set originally sold for 150. So you are barely doubling your investment (and this is all NEW, not used) in over ten years. Not really a good investment. As someone with a brickpicker account and over 10,000$ in sets, Technic has the worst performance out of the genres of sets I own. SW, Large Creator sets are the best.

[MAB]

^I agree with this. Even if the occasional one does sell, it is not the price sold that matters so much as the volume of sales. To sell a large set, you must nearly always be cheapest in your region. Buyers take into account postage for large sets (hence region) and they tend to buy just the set, not lots of items (hence needing to be cheapest rather than having large inventory but expensive).

A set selling 10 per month is bad, 10 per six months is terrible if you want liquidity. When you remember that there are still many people that haven't listed them yet, some sets have many years worth of stock stashed away.

[paul_delahaye]

Yes, BL average prices are X, but that is not the number to be looking at.

err, yes it is. This is the average price new in box sets have sold for in the past 6 months. This is not the price people are asking, which I agree, can be outragious

but equally, I can't see selling poly bags for £5 each is not going to make you a killing either. Not when you take your time into account.

Maybe it's time to invest in stocks and shares or gold rather than Lego

Edited February 27, 2016 by paul_delahaye

[nerdsforprez]

err, yes it is. This is the average price new in box sets have sold for in the past 6 months. This is not the price people are asking, which I agree, can be outragious

but equally, I can't see selling poly bags for £5 each is not going to make you a killing either. Not when you take your time into account.

Maybe it's time to invest in stocks and shares or gold rather than Lego

err.... apparently we are discussing the exact same thing "You have to look and see how much and how often it is ACTUALLY being sold. 8421 only sold 8 in the past 6 months. And not anywhere near their current average price. average price was around $330." --- @paul_delahaye - "This is the average price new in box sets have sold for in the past 6 months"

Also.... I don't really think anyone out there is investing for like their retirement or anything. If you only liquidate like one large adult set for like twice what it is worth (ex: SW UCS set = 200$x2 = 400$ = 200 dollars profit, give or take after all fees) is enough to buy another adult set. Like the OP mentioned, he/she is only interested in getting money back from money invested in hobby, or at least just making a buck or two to supplement what is being spent on hobby. No need to go searching for gold or pontificate who will be the next Apple for that......

[Actor Builder]

If you're really just trying to break even...I would suggest buying two of each large set you get. Open one and save the other sealed.

Then, you can sell the sealed later. Most likely at a higher price. You can also sell some of your smaller opened sets if necessary.

In this fashion, you should be able to keep some large opened sets in your collection, even if you have to sell everything else for emergency hospital bills or something.

[HawkLord]

As mentioned, this is late to the party. Lego blew up in 2014 and the Lego movie really helped to draw attention to Lego as an investment. The recent Star Wars craze really helped this as well, since Star Wars Lego really helped save Lego from going under.

Right now, very specific things do well and it's really hard to get a winning strategy. Yep, Star Wars is a thing, but not all Star Wars is a thing. You can't just go and buy one of every Star Wars set and believe you break even in 10yrs. With Lego reinventing so much material every couple of years, Star Wars ends up getting over saturated with sets that have already been seen before.

You have to look at how likely the thing Lego made is going to be reinvented in some way and how unique it is in the first place. Look at how many people bricklink a UCS Falcon. Sure it's not the real thing when it's all said and done, but it's still the same bricks or very similar.