Zepher, on 10 December 2012 - 07:40 AM, said:
Alright then... perhaps we do have the incredible luck of having a day killer that's a vig? I guess it's a possibility? I was doubtful that God would give the town an unblockable kill... but perhaps that happened, or the vig just held off a second night in a row? Whatever the case, good thing we got one scum, and good thing that we're only down 3 townies for it. At this ratio, we should have a fairly easy time, and still have a nice number of us escape with our lives.
What makes you think it's unblockable? If there is a day vig, the Scum should have a day block or protector. Do you know that they don't? You seem pretty sure. Why is your mind so set on the fact that they don't have a way to block or protect during the day? Scum?
If there is no day protector or blocker on either side, then I would guess our day killer is an up-to-now helpful serial killer. Seeing no evidence that there is no other day actions doesn't mean there aren't.
PsyKater, on 10 December 2012 - 08:37 AM, said:
Great that we caught the first scum now. Even greater that there is no kill of another townie. Other than poor Jane.
That makes me think of two possibilities: Either the daykiller is the scum killer. Or it was another successful block or protection. I am curious to hear who was being blocked tonight. Maybe we can hear a play from someone? Maybe the hedgehog is good in theater? Just suggesting ;)
Or a conversion. I'm working on a play...or maybe some notes from Lady Dolores. Depending on what we can find. But what about the possibility of conversion? And how about you answer to the posts from me and Daisy yesterday? There's a lot to answer to there.
Cecilie, on 10 December 2012 - 09:58 AM, said:
I'd like to put the idea of a conversion happening last night out there. I think it would be a good night for the scum to convert. Let's assume they can't convert and kill on the same night. Yesterday we successfully lynched who we assumed to be their killer based on who was blocked. Today, with no night kill again, everyone would be eager to lynch whoever was blocked again, since it turned out so well last time. So what if they then chose this night to convert instead? Making us all focus on whoever was blocked instead of worrying about who could have been a good target for conversion?
There's of course many other possibilities for there being no kill once again, but I just wanted to put that thought out there, so we can look carefully today and see if someone is changing their behaviour...
Good point. Who are the likely candidates for conversion. I still think Fred and I would be high on that list. Anybody else?
PsyKater, on 10 December 2012 - 01:54 PM, said:
I think it is a valid point, I did not think about. I remember a book where a conversion took 2 nights. Is this usual or does a conversion usually take 1 night?
I am currently working on my vote analysis and posting behavior analysis. Now that one scum is lynched, it could be helpful already.
I can't wait
to see your analysis.
JimButcher, on 10 December 2012 - 02:19 PM, said:
Shame about Jane. I was pretty sure she was scum based off of her response yesterday, but then, so were Oscar and the daykiller apparently. I was unfortunately too late to vote, although I do have the post saved (the day ended right before I could speak up).
I will admit that I was blocked last night, although I am not your killer. All you can do is take my word for it, although the smart thing to do would be to lynch or day kill me today, even though I would prefer to be confirmed town through investigative means. But who has time for that?
You were also "pretty sure" when Trisha turned up as Scum. Neither point still looks "pretty sure" to me. I'm still concerned that you seemed so sure of her guilt because of those reasons. They seemed more like a lazy player to me, but I did want her out of the way so we wouldn't have to guess at her behavior. So, you were blocked, yes.
def, on 10 December 2012 - 02:26 PM, said:
Wow. A pre-emptive argument. It's a smart move, and the townie one. It's fair that you got jailkept, as suspicion was lobbed at you by the for-now town cleared Oscar (led a lynch on a scumbum, works for me). Of course, there is a possibility of a conversion, but we can't vote on the basis of what we don't know.
He was not targeted by the jailkeeper. The other suspicious person was.