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Belville Mafia: Day 4


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#1 Quarryman

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 06:54 AM

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Day 4

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Late that night Daniel was in bed waiting for his wife. Like most women she could spend ages in the bathroom.

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But then a mysterious, silent person entered and pointed a gun at him. Daniel knew his time had come, but was unable to face it like a man.

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And the the silent person shot Daniel and left, adding another body to the long list of dead.

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"It seems your brief moment of cleverness was brief indeed, as Dragana was Loyal. And we also lost Daniel during the Night, who of course also was Loyal. This is getting frustrating people, please be more careful and consider what others have said before. Our chances of getting through this alive is getting slimmer every Day."


Rules (stolen mainly from Hinckley this time):
1. Each player has been given a character to play, who is either Loyal or Not Loyal. To win the game, the Loyal must kill off all the Not Loyals, while the Not Loyals needs to outnumber the Loyals.

2. Each day you will vote to lynch a player. Voting should be done in the following format; Vote: Character (Player). Similarly, un-voting is to be done in the format; Un-vote: Character (Player). No other format will be accepted, and please note the use of bold text. A majority vote is required to lynch a player. When a majority vote is reached the Day ends. Un-voting after the majority has been reached won't be counted.

3. A game day will last a maximum of 48 hours. You may not vote in the first 16 hours. After the day has concluded, a Night stage will commence, which will last a maximum of 24 hours.

4. If a Day ends without someone being convicted there will be a random death among the non-voters (yes, this means it's technically possible to have a Day end without someone dying, but that's unlikely)

5. The alignment of lynched players will be revealed at the beginning of the next Day, as well as those that died during the Night.

6. You may not quote or pretend to quote anything sent to you by the game host via PM. This includes all the details of your character and role, as well as any night action results. Role claims and reporting of night action results are acceptable, but only in your own words. Do not attempt to use the structure of your role PM to your advantage.

7. The usage of any form of communication outside the Day threads are strictly forbidden (except for the Not Loyals which have their own writeboard for this)

8. You may not edit your posts. 1st offence: stern warning, 2nd offence: The untimely death of your character, the end of your game, and endless ridicule.

9. You must post in every day thread. One day without a post and your character will be killed with extreme prejudice.

10. There are no clues in the pictures or the text accompanying them. Any attempt at using them as such will result in instant death of your character, no warnings, no exceptions, no second chances. The only clues you'll get in the opening post for the Day is whether a person who was killed (either during the Night or convicted the previous Day) was Loyal or Not Loyal.

11. If you encounter a problem or have a question, please contact the host via PM.



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Quentin de Belle-ville, head of the Belle-ville family (NPC, host character)
played by Quarryman


Players:

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Fuchsia de Belle-ville - married to Daniel
played by Fugazi

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Cornelia Steinethaler - younger sister of Quentin, married to James, mother of Petra.
played by CorneliusMurdock

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Richelle de Belle-ville - married to Tammo
played by Ricecracker

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Rupert Spalkowa - son of Irena and Sammy, brother of Amy
played by Rufus

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Amy Spalkowa - daughter of Irena and Sammy, sister of Rupert
played by iamded

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Petra Steinethaler, only child of James and Cornelia
played by Peanuts

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Tammo de Belle-ville, second son of Quentin from his first marriage, married to Richelle
played by Captain Tamamono




The Dead
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Sammy Spalkowa, married to Irena, father of Rupert and Amy
played by Sandy, voted off on Day 1 Loyal

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Henry de Belle-ville, oldest son of Quentin from his first marriage, married to Dragana
played by Hinckley, killed during Night 1 Loyal

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Irena Spalkowa - only child from Quentin's second marriage, married to Sammy, mother of Rupert and Amy
played by Shadows, voted off on Day 2 Not Loyal

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Jacob Steinethaler - married to Cornelia, father of Petra
played by JimButcher, killed during Night 2 Loyal

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Dragana de Belle-ville - married to Henry
played by Dragonator, voted off on Day 3 Loyal

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Daniel de Belle-ville - youngest son of Quentin from his first marriage, married to Fuchsia
played by dannylonglegs, killed during Night 3 Loyal



Reserves: (the list of reserves is very short, the only reason it's here at all is in case someone has to quit for valid, non-modkill reasons)
Sirius Black
Pandora
badboytje88




On Day 4 it takes 4 votes to convict.
3.14159265358979323846264338327950..

#2 Fugazi

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 08:29 AM

Daniel my darling, why you? :cry3:

I will follow Quentin's advice and go back through the memories of yesterday. Now that we know Dragana was Loyal perhaps we should pay more attention to what she was trying to say... :blush:
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#3 iamded

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 11:38 AM

Okay, I need to review my notes from the past 3 days, looking particularly close at Daniel, Jacob and Dragana's contributions. Daniel and Dragana as they've been proven innocent, and Jacob too as he was already proven innocent, but I have yet to analyse his contributions. Right now, and I'm just throwin' this out there, but Fuchsia seems to be suspicious to me. She's the only one who has really gained my trust with what she's said, which is the perfect thing a scum would do. Scum would disguise their true nature by acting as townie-ey as possible, while true townies needn't worry about disguising anything and should just be focusing on catching the scum.
Oh, er, 'townies' are what I've nicknamed the loyalists, and I think 'scum' is an adequate term for those traitorous non-loyals, don't you think?


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#4 CorneliusMurdock

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 12:53 PM

Well, megablocks.  I wish Dragana would have stopped going on about pies and actually shown us that she was trying to help.  I really thought we were on to another scum especially with some of her responses yesterday.  And to lose Daniel too...

We have to focus today, family.  We must catch a scum by nightfall or it might be too late.

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#5 Tamamono

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 02:37 PM

Not Daniel! :cry_sad: And Dragana, I should've known that two scum wouldn't act the exact same!

As Dad said, we need to convict a scum today. I'm going to go over my notes, and I'll be back in a little while with theories.

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#6 Fugazi

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 03:44 PM

View Postiamded, on 22 July 2011 - 11:38 AM, said:

Right now, and I'm just throwin' this out there, but Fuchsia seems to be suspicious to me. She's the only one who has really gained my trust with what she's said, which is the perfect thing a scum would do. Scum would disguise their true nature by acting as townie-ey as possible, while true townies needn't worry about disguising anything and should just be focusing on catching the scum.
Um, I guess we're in trouble if the only motive we have to lynch someone is that he's suspicious for NOT being suspicious enough. :sceptic:

I guess now is as good a time as any to mention this... On day 2, the reason I started trusting Amy was that she clearly told that she trusted me. I thought it was a more or less subtle way of letting me know that she's an investigator, and that she had investigated me on the first night. Why else would she trust me more than anyone else? Well now obviously it would appear that it was not the case. Was it some sort of strategy? I don't know.

I am also quite disappointed at the lack of night results. I would have expected that by now we would have some clue based on the night actions, but it seems that after 3 nights we're still clutching at straws for evidence. Either someone is holding out on useful information, or we all have been very unlucky so far in this ordeal.

Reviewing Dragana's last words I must wonder if there is something to read into Amy and/or Petra's last minute change of mind when we lynched Irena. I used to think that scum voting for scum was suicidal, but perhaps what they are trying to achieve is a team victory, which would make the sacrifice of Irena more likely if it helps clearing one or two of them for good. I'm still suspicious of those who didn't vote for Irena, but after the wrongful lynch of the most suspicious of them I am reconsidering some of my assumptions.
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#7 Peanuts

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 03:54 PM

Too bad Danny's dead as well, he once again was one of the most trustworthy family members.
And I believed Dragana to be scum, but it seems I was wrong...again. Well, she acted very scummy yesterday.
So, which other suspects do we have?
Unfortunately, Dragana was suspicious of me, but she also was of Cornelia, who I don't think to be scummy. At least she was the second to vote for Irena, but she could also be a not loyal who's very good at decpeting us.

I'm still suspect of Richelle. The fact she was the first to vote even substantiates this. I mean, this seem slike a perfectly scummy move: There's two suspects, one is illoyal and one is, as the illoyal one knows, loyal. The illoyal one gets voted for, so what does she do? Just vote for the other one.

But we most certainly have a second scum left, and I don't have many clues who it might be. Most likely it was somebody who didn't vote for Irena, or at least somebody, who voted very late, when her conviction was almost sure. Unfortunately it was a narrow conviction, and the first and the third one to vote are already killed, so it's hard to learn anything from this.

What Amy just said is quite interesting, but also a bit confusing. Of course would the scum try to gain trust by acting like a useful townie, and we shouldn't trust someone just becaue he seems to help us, but I wouldn't go that far and say someone's a suspect because he acts like a townie. I think we can hardly say who actually seems to be a townie and who just acts like a townie, as the ones who helped us most are dead.
I don't think Fuchsia's the only one who could easily be a not loyal in disguise.

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#8 CorneliusMurdock

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 04:08 PM

One of the things Dragana said yesterday in her only real attempt to contribute was that we should not rule out anyone based on the voting for Irena.  So I'll put my impressions here of everyone.

Fuchsia- She's seemed town to me., being helpful and logical in her arguments.  Of course, this could be an act by a very clever scum.

Cornelia- I know I'm Loyal so I'll just respond to Dragana's final comments about me.  She said:

Quote

Cornelia is more a gut instinct from how she has been acting in public over the last few days, playing off what people have said, making sure someone else leads the vote before jumping in, all the sorts of things I would do if I was disloyal.
I don't think I've been playing off of anyone so much as as voicing my opinions whether they agree with another person's opinions or not.  As for not leading the vote, I think that has more to do with me waiting for the accused to reply to the accusations before placing a vote.  If you look back you can see that I normally say who I will probably vote for, ask that person to speak up against my reasons and then go off to think.  Before I come back, someone has always started the vote without me.  If that seems suspicious, so be it.  I am a townie and only wish to give fellow townies the benefit of the doubt before convicting them.  I wish Dragana had a less flippant response when I gave her the opportunity.  Every time we convict a townie, we're closer to defeat.  If she had given a more convincing argument, maybe she'd still be alive right now.

Richelle- Quiet and hasn't helped a lot so far.  I'm sure she's high on the suspect list for others as well.

Rupert- Logical in his arguments also but there's something that makes me uneasy in his voting pattern.  This boy can be deviously clever.

Amy- A little snot rag.  After being quiet early on she's tried harder be a contributing family member.  Not sure if she's just putting on an act to avoid suspicion.

Petra- My little angel.  I don't know.  She's been an enigma to me.  Could go either way right now.

Tammo- He has tried to contribute as well.  I have no reason to suspect him.  It's possible that he's scum but unlikely.

View PostFugazi, on 22 July 2011 - 03:44 PM, said:

I guess now is as good a time as any to mention this... On day 2, the reason I started trusting Amy was that she clearly told that she trusted me. I thought it was a more or less subtle way of letting me know that she's an investigator, and that she had investigated me on the first night. Why else would she trust me more than anyone else? Well now obviously it would appear that it was not the case. Was it some sort of strategy? I don't know.

I thought the that after reflecting on it a while but she hasn't come forward with any investigative info that could help us.  But if she were the investigator and the scum assumed the same thing about her "trust" statement, she would be long dead.

I think today makes or breaks us.  If we don't get scum today we're screwed.  I'm inclined to believe that we lost our investigator early on.  Probably also any protector we might have had (Although they might have been protecting the wrong person every night.  It hasn't been cut and dry about who the next target will be.)  All we have to go on is our discussions and that's frustrating.

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#9 Tamamono

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 04:29 PM

View PostFugazi, on 22 July 2011 - 03:44 PM, said:

I am also quite disappointed at the lack of night results. I would have expected that by now we would have some clue based on the night actions, but it seems that after 3 nights we're still clutching at straws for evidence. Either someone is holding out on useful information, or we all have been very unlucky so far in this ordeal.

Or maybe our investigator was either Sammy or Henry. :sceptic: That would explain the lack of night action results. However, in such an open game... of life, maybe the investigator wouldn't come forward at all? Maybe he or she would simply try to raise suspicion about the person they found to be scum. Dragana said she was suspicious of Pudgy Petra and Cornelia, maybe Dragana was the investigator, and she found one of them to be scum?

Quote

Reviewing Dragana's last words I must wonder if there is something to read into Amy and/or Petra's last minute change of mind when we lynched Irena. I used to think that scum voting for scum was suicidal, but perhaps what they are trying to achieve is a team victory, which would make the sacrifice of Irena more likely if it helps clearing one or two of them for good. I'm still suspicious of those who didn't vote for Irena, but after the wrongful lynch of the most suspicious of them I am reconsidering some of my assumptions.

When Pudgy Petra switched her vote over to Irena, she said that it was because 'she didn't want the day to end without a conviction', but if that had happened, one of the non-voters would be killed at random. However, the only person who didn't vote that day was Irena (Richelle also didn't cast a vote in the end, but Petra switched her vote before Richelle unvoted), so Irena would be killed anyway. Maybe Petra figured that she could take a bit of credit for voting off her nearly-doomed teammate?

View PostPeanuts, on 22 July 2011 - 03:54 PM, said:

I'm still suspect of Richelle. The fact she was the first to vote even substantiates this. I mean, this seem slike a perfectly scummy move: There's two suspects, one is illoyal and one is, as the illoyal one knows, loyal. The illoyal one gets voted for, so what does she do? Just vote for the other one.

That's true, but what bothers me is that she did start off the vote against Dragana, which would make her obvious conviction material for today. I don't think a scum would do that, but maybe it's a double-bluff? She's certainly been less than helpful.

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But we most certainly have a second scum left, and I don't have many clues who it might be. Most likely it was somebody who didn't vote for Irena, or at least somebody, who voted very late, when her conviction was almost sure. Unfortunately it was a narrow conviction, and the first and the third one to vote are already killed, so it's hard to learn anything from this.

In case anybody's forgotten, the vote went like this: Jacob (now deceased), Cornelia, Daniel (now deceased), Fuchsia, Pudgy Petra, and Amy.

Now here's another theory. Maybe Fuchsia and Petra are scum, and Fuchsia decided that Irena was a liability, and thus decided to vote her off and gain some points with us townies. Fuchsia voted fourth, and asked Petra (who was on the Amy bandwagon at the moment) to vote right after her. This would make it so that only one more vote was needed, and it must've certainly been inviting to Amy to just seal it off, which she did.

This is just a theory, but I think we should still consider it.

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#10 Fugazi

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 04:49 PM

View PostCaptain Tamamono, on 22 July 2011 - 04:29 PM, said:

Dragana said she was suspicious of Pudgy Petra and Cornelia, maybe Dragana was the investigator, and she found one of them to be scum?
A loyal investigator would at least have tried to reveal his role and give away some information before being lynched, I think.

View PostCaptain Tamamono, on 22 July 2011 - 04:29 PM, said:

In case anybody's forgotten, the vote went like this: Jacob (now deceased), Cornelia, Daniel (now deceased), Fuchsia, Pudgy Petra, and Amy.

Now here's another theory. Maybe Fuchsia and Petra are scum, and Fuchsia decided that Irena was a liability, and thus decided to vote her off and gain some points with us townies. Fuchsia voted fourth, and asked Petra (who was on the Amy bandwagon at the moment) to vote right after her. This would make it so that only one more vote was needed, and it must've certainly been inviting to Amy to just seal it off, which she did.
Just before I voted, I believe the tally was Amy-4, Irena-3. Had I been scum, it would have been easier to try to finish off Amy instead of going for Irena. See, 4 votes, plus me and Irena makes 6. Lynch, bag Amy, who's next. Since Irena is confirmed scum, then Petra and me can't both be scum. Perhaps neither of us are, but as mentioned above I'm somewhat suspicious of Petra.

On the other hand, it's interesting that Irena didn't vote for Amy when it could have saved her. Could it be that Amy is also scum, and that there was no point for Irena to vote for her? I'll be back, I must give this some more thought.
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#11 Peanuts

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 04:56 PM

View PostCaptain Tamamono, on 22 July 2011 - 04:29 PM, said:

When Pudgy Petra switched her vote over to Irena, she said that it was because 'she didn't want the day to end without a conviction', but if that had happened, one of the non-voters would be killed at random. However, the only person who didn't vote that day was Irena (Richelle also didn't cast a vote in the end, but Petra switched her vote before Richelle unvoted), so Irena would be killed anyway. Maybe Petra figured that she could take a bit of credit for voting off her nearly-doomed teammate?
Well, but what if Irena would have taken the chance and vote shortly before the day ended? Thus she would have avoided a conviction and survived, winning one more day for her team. And the scum, which would have known that Irena would be doomed the following day, would have voted for her as the first ones, gaining far more trust than voting last. I don't think this is a possibility.

View PostCaptain Tamamono, on 22 July 2011 - 04:29 PM, said:

That's true, but what bothers me is that she did start off the vote against Dragana, which would make her obvious conviction material for today. I don't think a scum would do that, but maybe it's a double-bluff? She's certainly been less than helpful.
What about fear? She was afraid, that you would follow me, and voted for Dragana right after I was offline busy and couldn't convince anyone to vote for her anymore.

View PostCaptain Tamamono, on 22 July 2011 - 04:29 PM, said:

Now here's another theory. Maybe Fuchsia and Petra are scum, and Fuchsia decided that Irena was a liability, and thus decided to vote her off and gain some points with us townies. Fuchsia voted fourth, and asked Petra (who was on the Amy bandwagon at the moment) to vote right after her. This would make it so that only one more vote was needed, and it must've certainly been inviting to Amy to just seal it off, which she did.

This is just a theory, but I think we should still consider it.
It's a probabilty I can't deny and it isn't even that far-fetched. I can only say what I said before, I wanted (otherwise than Irena) not end the day without a conviction and I doubted Amy would get the votes requested for a conviction, so I truned on Irena, which had been acting scummy as well, even though she wasn't with my main suspects.

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#12 Tamamono

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 05:15 PM

View PostFugazi, on 22 July 2011 - 04:49 PM, said:

A loyal investigator would at least have tried to reveal his role and give away some information before being lynched, I think.

You're probably right. :sceptic: Maybe Jacob was the investigator, and that's why he started the vote against Irena, because he investigated her and found her to be scum?

Quote

Just before I voted, I believe the tally was Amy-4, Irena-3.
Yes, that was the tally.

Quote

Had I been scum, it would have been easier to try to finish off Amy instead of going for Irena. See, 4 votes, plus me and Irena makes 6. Lynch, bag Amy, who's next.

That's true, but Amy has publicly voiced her trust in you earlier that day. Voting for someone who trusts you isn't a very good decision. Or maybe you thought you could exploit that trust later on?

Quote

Since Irena is confirmed scum, then Petra and me can't both be scum.

Oh? And why is that? Your defense is less than convincing. That's another thing; your additions to the conversation have been well thought out and logical this entire game... of life, but when someone accuses you, you finally break down and give a defense with that many holes in it? People, I think we've found our scum.

Quote

On the other hand, it's interesting that Irena didn't vote for Amy when it could have saved her. Could it be that Amy is also scum, and that there was no point for Irena to vote for her? I'll be back, I must give this some more thought.

That's been bothering me as well; maybe she just didn't care?

View PostPeanuts, on 22 July 2011 - 04:56 PM, said:

Well, but what if Irena would have taken the chance and vote shortly before the day ended? Thus she would have avoided a conviction and survived, winning one more day for her team. And the scum, which would have known that Irena would be doomed the following day, would have voted for her as the first ones, gaining far more trust than voting last. I don't think this is a possibility.

She didn't even show up to defend herself, never mind cast a vote of her own.

Quote

What about fear? She was afraid, that you would follow me, and voted for Dragana right after I was offline busy and couldn't convince anyone to vote for her anymore.

That's definitely a possibility. Richelle is still high on my suspects list, I'm just kind of skeptical that she would start a vote off against a townie and make herself such an easy target for the next day.

Quote

It's a probabilty I can't deny and it isn't even that far-fetched. I can only say what I said before, I wanted (otherwise than Irena) not end the day without a conviction and I doubted Amy would get the votes requested for a conviction, so I truned on Irena, which had been acting scummy as well, even though she wasn't with my main suspects.

But that's just it, Irena would have been killed whether you voted for her or not. It was obvious at that point that she wasn't going to show up to defend herself/vote off Amy in time, so you decided to cast the fifth vote, thus tempting Amy to cast the final one.

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#13 Rufus

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 05:39 PM

View PostFugazi, on 22 July 2011 - 03:44 PM, said:

Reviewing Dragana's last words I must wonder if there is something to read into Amy and/or Petra's last minute change of mind when we lynched Irena. I used to think that scum voting for scum was suicidal, but perhaps what they are trying to achieve is a team victory, which would make the sacrifice of Irena more likely if it helps clearing one or two of them for good. I'm still suspicious of those who didn't vote for Irena, but after the wrongful lynch of the most suspicious of them I am reconsidering some of my assumptions.
This is an interesting theory.  In retrospect, Petra's decision to switch her vote after twice saying she didn't think Irena was the strongest suspect was rather odd and seemed to come apropos of nothing.  She said it was 'in the interest of achieving a conviction', but it could equally have been as a result of private communication.

View PostPeanuts, on 22 July 2011 - 03:54 PM, said:

Unfortunately, Dragana was suspicious of me, but she also was of Cornelia, who I don't think to be scummy. At least she was the second to vote for Irena, but she could also be a not loyal who's very good at decpeting us.
At the time, I thought Dragana was very likely to be a scummy disloyal person, so I took what she said about you as merely a smoke-screen.  Knowing now that she was loyal doesn't necessarily make what she said any more credible, but there is a lingering aura of suspicion around you, Petra, which you haven't done anything much to shake off.  It is nothing more than a feeling I have, though.

Quote

I'm still suspect of Richelle. The fact she was the first to vote even substantiates this. I mean, this seem slike a perfectly scummy move: There's two suspects, one is illoyal and one is, as the illoyal one knows, loyal. The illoyal one gets voted for, so what does she do? Just vote for the other one.
This is possible.  In my experience it is unusual for scum to start votes; in this case, pretty much everyone was expressing distrust of Dragana, so if she is scum she may have felt safe in doing so.  

Quote

What Amy just said is quite interesting, but also a bit confusing. Of course would the scum try to gain trust by acting like a useful townie, and we shouldn't trust someone just becaue he seems to help us, but I wouldn't go that far and say someone's a suspect because he acts like a townie. I think we can hardly say who actually seems to be a townie and who just acts like a townie, as the ones who helped us most are dead.
I don't think Fuchsia's the only one who could easily be a not loyal in disguise.
This goes without saying.  If the scum weren't able to blend in as townies, we'd be home and dry by now :hmpf:

View PostCorneliusMurdock, on 22 July 2011 - 04:08 PM, said:

Cornelia- I know I'm Loyal so I'll just respond to Dragana's final comments about me.  She said:
If there is anything in what Dragana said, then of the two of you, Petra is the more likely suspect.  Cornelia seems genuinely thoughtful and open to reason.  Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean anything, but I personally haven't heard Cornelia say anything supicious.

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Rupert- Logical in his arguments also but there's something that makes me uneasy in his voting pattern.  This boy can be deviously clever.
I'm not sure what you're getting at here - I have already explained my decision to vote for Amy over Irena several times, and yesterday I voted for Dragana, of whom I and pretty much everyone else were suspicious.

View PostCaptain Tamamono, on 22 July 2011 - 04:29 PM, said:

When Pudgy Petra switched her vote over to Irena, she said that it was because 'she didn't want the day to end without a conviction', but if that had happened, one of the non-voters would be killed at random. However, the only person who didn't vote that day was Irena (Richelle also didn't cast a vote in the end, but Petra switched her vote before Richelle unvoted), so Irena would be killed anyway. Maybe Petra figured that she could take a bit of credit for voting off her nearly-doomed teammate?
Again, an interesting theory.  That switching vote is starting to look more and more suspicious, and the motive may well be just as you say.

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Now here's another theory. Maybe Fuchsia and Petra are scum, and Fuchsia decided that Irena was a liability, and thus decided to vote her off and gain some points with us townies. Fuchsia voted fourth, and asked Petra (who was on the Amy bandwagon at the moment) to vote right after her. This would make it so that only one more vote was needed, and it must've certainly been inviting to Amy to just seal it off, which she did.
As Fuschia has said, I think this is less likely.  Fuschia could easily have voted for Amy, which would have placed Amy on 5 votes to Irena's 3.

View PostFugazi, on 22 July 2011 - 04:49 PM, said:

Just before I voted, I believe the tally was Amy-4, Irena-3. Had I been scum, it would have been easier to try to finish off Amy instead of going for Irena. See, 4 votes, plus me and Irena makes 6. Lynch, bag Amy, who's next. Since Irena is confirmed scum, then Petra and me can't both be scum. Perhaps neither of us are, but as mentioned above I'm somewhat suspicious of Petra.

View PostPeanuts, on 22 July 2011 - 04:56 PM, said:

Well, but what if Irena would have taken the chance and vote shortly before the day ended? Thus she would have avoided a conviction and survived, winning one more day for her team. And the scum, which would have known that Irena would be doomed the following day, would have voted for her as the first ones, gaining far more trust than voting last. I don't think this is a possibility.
The only way I think it is possible for you both to be scum is if you knew Irena wouldn't be back before the end the day.

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It's a probabilty I can't deny and it isn't even that far-fetched. I can only say what I said before, I wanted (otherwise than Irena) not end the day without a conviction and I doubted Amy would get the votes requested for a conviction, so I truned on Irena, which had been acting scummy as well, even though she wasn't with my main suspects.
Hmmm.  This seems like a weak excuse to me.  I'll have to give this some more thought.

#14 Ricecracker

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 05:46 PM

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I guess now is as good a time as any to mention this... On day 2, the reason I started trusting Amy was that she clearly told me that she trusted me. I thought it was a more or less
subtle way of letting me know that she's an investigator, and that she had investigated me on the first night. Why else would she trust me more than anyone else? Well now obviously it would appear that it was not the case. Was it some sort of strategy? I don't know.
I thought the same thing, but since nothing else came from it, I disregarded it. Obviously it's not certain, but it could've been a role-claim to gain our trust.

View PostPeanuts, on 22 July 2011 - 03:54 PM, said:

I'm still suspect of Richelle. The fact she was the first to vote even substantiates this. I mean, this seem slike a perfectly scummy move: There's two suspects, one is illoyal and one is, as the illoyal one knows, loyal. The illoyal one gets voted for, so what does she do? Just vote for the other one.
If you actually listened to what I said yesterday, I wasn't sure if Dragana was scum or not, but voted for her because it was either her or me. It seems that if you're ever suspected of, you just come at me with no evidence, even though you admit that there are a number of things that are suspicious about you. And that number just keeps growing.

#15 CorneliusMurdock

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 05:49 PM

View PostRufus, on 22 July 2011 - 05:39 PM, said:

I'm not sure what you're getting at here - I have already explained my decision to vote for Amy over Irena several times, and yesterday I voted for Dragana, of whom I and pretty much everyone else were suspicious.
It's not just your vote for Amy but you also cast the final vote for Dragana. (Not that I wouldn't have done the same.  She really didn't help herself or us yesterday.)  Anyway, I'm not tremendously suspicious of you, I just thought it was worth noting.

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#16 Tamamono

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 06:03 PM

View PostRufus, on 22 July 2011 - 05:39 PM, said:

This is an interesting theory. In retrospect, Petra's decision to switch her vote after twice saying she didn't think Irena was the strongest suspect was rather odd and seemed to come apropos of nothing. She said it was 'in the interest of achieving a conviction', but it could equally have been as a result of private communication.

That's true. Irena could very well have pulled Pudgy Petra aside and told her to cast the fifth vote. However, I don't remember seeing Irena online around much on the day she was convicted; it's possible that she too busy baking pies to do so.

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As Fuschia has said, I think this is less likely. Fuschia could easily have voted for Amy, which would have placed Amy on 5 votes to Irena's 3.

Fuchsia's smart, and she's one to think ahead. If she had voted for Amy, and Amy had come up as town the next day (although Amy may very well be a scum too, and Fuchsia wanted to vote off Irena because she was the least active of the two), then it would've looked very bad for Fuchsia, as she would've betrayed Amy's trust. This is a game situation of distrust. If you're scum, and a townie trusts you, you manipulate that townie as much as possible.

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Hmmm. This seems like a weak excuse to me. I'll have to give this some more thought.

They're both full of weak excuses. I think at least one of them (Pudgy Petra or Fuchsia) is scum, if not both of them.

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#17 Fugazi

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 06:44 PM

View PostCaptain Tamamono, on 22 July 2011 - 05:15 PM, said:

That's true, but Amy has publicly voiced her trust in you earlier that day. Voting for someone who trusts you isn't a very good decision. Or maybe you thought you could exploit that trust later on?
So you're saying that instead of lynching a Loyal and dealing with the consequences (if any) later, I would prefer to organise the lynching of one of my own? :sceptic:

View PostCaptain Tamamono, on 22 July 2011 - 05:15 PM, said:

Oh? And why is that? Your defense is less than convincing. That's another thing; your additions to the conversation have been well thought out and logical this entire game... of life, but when someone accuses you, you finally break down and give a defense with that many holes in it? People, I think we've found our scum.
Please don't get too excited, it's your accusations that don't stand up to scrutiny.

View PostRufus, on 22 July 2011 - 05:39 PM, said:

The only way I think it is possible for you both to be scum is if you knew Irena wouldn't be back before the end the day.
To me, it seems more like Irena didn't vote because she accepted the sacrifice. Read on.

View PostCaptain Tamamono, on 22 July 2011 - 06:03 PM, said:

Fuchsia's smart, and she's one to think ahead. If she had voted for Amy, and Amy had come up as town the next day (although Amy may very well be a scum too, and Fuchsia wanted to vote off Irena because she was the least active of the two), then it would've looked very bad for Fuchsia, as she would've betrayed Amy's trust. This is a game situation of distrust. If you're scum, and a townie trusts you, you manipulate that townie as much as possible.
You're giving me too much credit. Do you think Irena would have accepted to be lynched by her own when it was so easy to kill off Amy instead?

Which brings me to my next observation. I mentioned before that it was curious that given the choice, Irena didn't vote for Amy in order to perhaps save herself. Going back to day 2, what I just noticed is that when Amy voted, the tally was Irena-3 Amy-3. What did Amy vote? Dragana! :sceptic: Is it just me or do both Amy and Irena look like they didn't want to vote for one another? Only when it was clear that one of them would be lynched that day (voting for Dragana never took off) Amy switched her vote -- perhaps enjoined by Irena.

Does this make more sense than Tammo's theory?
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#18 Peanuts

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 06:57 PM

View PostCaptain Tamamono, on 22 July 2011 - 05:15 PM, said:

She didn't even show up to defend herself, never mind cast a vote of her own.

But that's just it, Irena would have been killed whether you voted for her or not. It was obvious at that point that she wasn't going to show up to defend herself/vote off Amy in time, so you decided to cast the fifth vote, thus tempting Amy to cast the final one.
Why are you so sure she wouldn't have appeared ten minutes before the ending and just vote for Amy or Dragana or anyone else? She had had two more hours to save her life.

View PostRufus, on 22 July 2011 - 05:39 PM, said:

This is possible.  In my experience it is unusual for scum to start votes; in this case, pretty much everyone was expressing distrust of Dragana, so if she is scum she may have felt safe in doing so.  


This goes without saying.  If the scum weren't able to blend in as townies, we'd be home and dry by now :hmpf:
So what stops the scum from doing something that's "unusual for scum"? :hmpf:

View PostRicecracker, on 22 July 2011 - 05:46 PM, said:

If you actually listened to what I said yesterday, I wasn't sure if Dragana was scum or not, but voted for her because it was either her or me. It seems that if you're ever suspected of, you just come at me with no evidence, even though you admit that there are a number of things that are suspicious about you. And that number just keeps growing.
I have to agree, a townie wouldn't want to be voted off either, and Dragana did look suspicious. I even admit, that the scum might furthermore let a team member cast the first vote. :sceptic: Yeah, that's no point against you, sorry.

If you find it suspicious that I changed my vote, it's also a bit strange that Amy, when her and Irena had three votes each, didn't vote for Irena, which would have increased her chance to survive the day, but splitted the voted once more. She also changed her vote to Irena in the end, which could have exactly the reasons you blame me for, and is even more likely in my opinion. But of course I can't rate this clinically, as I know I'm loyal. And she might have had the same interest in reaching a conviction as me, of course. But still, I think, Tammo, you're letting Amy of the hook a bit too fast. And what about Fuchsia, I don't see any real point there, just a lot of theories?

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#19 CorneliusMurdock

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 07:20 PM

View PostFugazi, on 22 July 2011 - 06:44 PM, said:

You're giving me too much credit. Do you think Irena would have accepted to be lynched by her own when it was so easy to kill off Amy instead?

Which brings me to my next observation. I mentioned before that it was curious that given the choice, Irena didn't vote for Amy in order to perhaps save herself. Going back to day 2, what I just noticed is that when Amy voted, the tally was Irena-3 Amy-3. What did Amy vote? Dragana! :sceptic: Is it just me or do both Amy and Irena look like they didn't want to vote for one another? Only when it was clear that one of them would be lynched that day (voting for Dragana never took off) Amy switched her vote -- perhaps enjoined by Irena.

Does this make more sense than Tammo's theory?
That does make more sense to me.  You always do posit the best theories.  Amy seems to creep upwards on my suspect list.  If so many of us took her "trust" in you to be a role-claim, how is she still alive?  Surely the scum would have thought so too and it would be in their best interest to kill the investigator.  Perhaps she hoped her role-claiming would draw the real investigator out and make it easier for her scum team to kill them.

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#20 Rufus

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 08:02 PM

View PostFugazi, on 22 July 2011 - 06:44 PM, said:

Which brings me to my next observation. I mentioned before that it was curious that given the choice, Irena didn't vote for Amy in order to perhaps save herself. Going back to day 2, what I just noticed is that when Amy voted, the tally was Irena-3 Amy-3. What did Amy vote? Dragana! :sceptic: Is it just me or do both Amy and Irena look like they didn't want to vote for one another? Only when it was clear that one of them would be lynched that day (voting for Dragana never took off) Amy switched her vote -- perhaps enjoined by Irena.
This theory certainly fits the observed facts.  I can't believe I didn't see it earlier.  If the vote were tied between two scum, they have nothing to lose and everything to gain by voting for one of their own.  

Let's see if this works.  At 3 votes each to Irena and Amy, Amy votes Dragana.  Tammo votes Amy, and then Fuchsia votes Irena. 4-4-1.  At this point, Petra unvotes Amy, and votes Irena.  5-3-1.  I vote Amy, 5-4-1, and then Amy, perhaps scared for her own skin, unvotes Dragana and votes Irena, and Irena is convicted.

It could work either way, whether Amy is scum or town.  No-one, if there is a vote building up against them, would pass up the opportunity to keep themselves safe, with the added incentive that voting out a scum would make them less suspicious the next day.  The only thing against this working if Amy is scum is that if Irena had turned up and voted Amy, the vote would have been tied.  But I guess nothing would have stopped someone else unvoting and clinching the conviction.

What motivated Petra to change her vote is less clear.  If Amy is scum, I think that would likely clear Petra, who I doubt would have voted for one of her own so early in the day.

View PostPeanuts, on 22 July 2011 - 06:57 PM, said:

If you find it suspicious that I changed my vote, it's also a bit strange that Amy, when her and Irena had three votes each, didn't vote for Irena, which would have increased her chance to survive the day, but splitted the voted once more. She also changed her vote to Irena in the end, which could have exactly the reasons you blame me for, and is even more likely in my opinion. But of course I can't rate this clinically, as I know I'm loyal. And she might have had the same interest in reaching a conviction as me, of course.
I think it's unlikely that both you and Amy are scum, but likely that one of you is.  Right now, Amy is looking the more likely.

#21 Tamamono

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 09:54 PM

View PostFugazi, on 22 July 2011 - 06:44 PM, said:

Which brings me to my next observation. I mentioned before that it was curious that given the choice, Irena didn't vote for Amy in order to perhaps save herself. Going back to day 2, what I just noticed is that when Amy voted, the tally was Irena-3 Amy-3. What did Amy vote? Dragana! :sceptic: Is it just me or do both Amy and Irena look like they didn't want to vote for one another? Only when it was clear that one of them would be lynched that day (voting for Dragana never took off) Amy switched her vote -- perhaps enjoined by Irena.

Does this make more sense than Tammo's theory?

That theory does make sense, even more sense than mine. It would explain why Amy voted for Dragana when it certainly wouldn't have helped her escape a conviction, and it would also explain why it took Amy so long to finally vote for Irena. Sorry if seem adamant in thinking that you're scum. I'm only suggesting different theories.

View PostPeanuts, on 22 July 2011 - 06:57 PM, said:

Why are you so sure she wouldn't have appeared ten minutes before the ending and just vote for Amy or Dragana or anyone else? She had had two more hours to save her life.

Sorry, I didn't realize there was that much time left.

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But still, I think, Tammo, you're letting Amy of the hook a bit too fast. And what about Fuchsia, I don't see any real point there, just a lot of theories?

No, it's not that I'm 'letting her off the hook', my theory (that Fuchsia and Petra are scum) is one of many I have. Fuchsia has been pretty helpful so far, but that could easily be a clever ruse. I don't know, I guess it's just a gut feeling I have. :sceptic:

Fuchsia's suggestion about Amy being scum makes perfect sense. However I don't know who Amy's accomplice could be. Maybe Irena and Amy were the only scum to begin with? I'm stumped. :wacko:

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#22 Fugazi

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 10:18 PM

View PostCaptain Tamamono, on 22 July 2011 - 09:54 PM, said:

Fuchsia's suggestion about Amy being scum makes perfect sense. However I don't know who Amy's accomplice could be. Maybe Irena and Amy were the only scum to begin with? I'm stumped. :wacko:
From Quentin's alarmed tone this morning, I get the feeling that there are at least two Not Loyals alive. But I can't tell who the other(s) might be.

One more thing... Amy has the dubious distinction of a 'perfect' voting record. She didn't vote for any Loyal who was lynched, but voted for the Not Loyal. I know it can be the result of sheer luck, but still. And yeah, Petra also has a perfect record, for whatever it's worth.
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#23 Peanuts

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 10:59 PM

View PostCaptain Tamamono, on 22 July 2011 - 09:54 PM, said:

Fuchsia's suggestion about Amy being scum makes perfect sense. However I don't know who Amy's accomplice could be. Maybe Irena and Amy were the only scum to begin with? I'm stumped. :wacko:
It's an important question which is hard to answer. If we consider Amy's scum, that would leave:
-Fuchsia, who has brought up this theory, not likely to be scum as well
-Cornelia, who seemed acting pretty logical to me, don't believe her to be scum; also she seems to approve Fuchsia's theory
-Richelle, third to vote for Amy, which I don't think would a not loyal do
-Rupert, who voted for Amy last
-Myself, who I know is town. Also I was the second to vote for Amy. As Rupert says, It's unlikely that both me and Amy are scum
-Tammo, who also voted for Amy
Of course, only assuming Amy's really scum, which isn't proven. I'm just thinking.
So in case she's scum, I think, the most likely ones for the last accomplice are Rupert and Tammo. What do you mean?

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#24 Tamamono

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 11:36 PM

View PostPeanuts, on 22 July 2011 - 10:59 PM, said:

Of course, only assuming Amy's really scum, which isn't proven. I'm just thinking.
So in case she's scum, I think, the most likely ones for the last accomplice are Rupert and Tammo. What do you mean?

Well, I know I'm Loyal, so that would leave Rupert as the most likely accomplice- assuming Amy is scum of course.

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#25 CorneliusMurdock

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 11:42 PM

I think the scum starting off with just two would be too few and four would be too many.  And the possibility of conversion is there but I find it unlikely that they can especially on nights they've killed.  I agree that there must be two left which is why today's vote is so crucial.  
As to whom they might be, Amy is clearly a candidate for one of the spots.  The more I think about her behavior now the more I feel like voting for her.  I would like to hear her story about the whole "trust" thing.
For the other one, it does seem harder.  No other family member really stands out to me right now.  But really we can only vote off one person a day so while we should keep our eyes and ears open, there's not much we could do today if we are going o vote out Amy.

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