Edmond Dantes, on Mar 12 2010, 04:11 PM, said:
Actually, I would bet this is probably incorrect. It is true to state that there might possibly be five or six of a few and only the minimum three of the rest, (or four of 12 and three of four for a total of 60, or any other combination), but spread over the entire production, numbers probably will be equal. IE, If you take 16 boxes and there are three each of 15 different minifigs and 15 of the last one (the most drastic variance possible) in each box, the rarity would be equal assuming the 15 of one in each box is a different fig each time. IE, out of 30*16=480 minifigs, you'd have ((3*15)+15=60) of each. Which is obvious if you think about it.
Of course, that is the most extreme example and probably would be very rare. It's more likely you'd have a max of 5 or 6 of each one, with a minimum of three of each, but then the same would be true if you took 15 other cases and compared. The entire population of each fig would average out to be equal.
I hope I explained that sufficiently.
Indeed, that's the sort of thing I was thinking. That said, IIRC someone did officially confirm that some would be more or less common than others, but my memory's hardly infallible; can anyone confirm this with evidence?
Tyrant, on Mar 12 2010, 03:28 PM, said:
The real rarity will come from increased demand of one figure over another. The slightly lower production run (assuming that the soought after figures are the ones with the lower production run) will likely have an effect on the price on the secondary market, but it's anyone's guess how much it will impact it.
I do think this is the case as well, but we should also remember that different people will not only want different minifigs, but will want them in different quantities, which should also impact demand. Whether it has the effect of evening demand out or making the differential demand levels even more lopsided is hard to say without polling data or something like that, though.
For example, from all I've read on the forums here, the diver is one of the less exciting ones for most people - there are already a lot of diver minifigures, after all, even if the specific diver here has a distinctive look with a unique print and slightly different molds for the accessories and so on. Let's imagine, then, that the number of people specifically seeking the diver is fairly low - one out of every five people, say (I have no idea what the actual figure might be; I'm just making stuff up. I want at least one of each minifig, myself, and I know many others do as well, but anyway...). However, the diver is something that, for those who do want it, many will want more than one, to make a team out of them - so if those who do want it each want around five of them on average, then for every five buyers / collectors there's a demand for a total of twenty-five divers. On the other hand, we might say that three or four people out of every five want the clown, but most of them will be satisfied with just one or two clowns, so that for every five collectors there might typically be a total demand for just five or six clowns. In this hypothetical scenario, there would therefore be a lot more overall demand for divers than clowns, even though more individual people would want clowns than divers.