Death Star Investment

[Albus]

Apologies if this sort of question goes in a pre-existing topic.

Considering rumours that the set 10188 Death Star will be retired soon (it has been 7 years after all), I've been contemplating purchasing one (I already own one for myself) for investment. The secondary market prices for 10179 UCS Millennium Falcon are really expensive, up to 5x the original price (AUD), I find, and given the similar scale and the popularity of 10188, I can imagine it will be quite valuable once LEGO stops selling it.

What do people think? Is the Death Star worth investing in? Saving it for a couple of years, however long it takes, and then selling it for a higher price? Are others doing this too?

Obviously it's a lot of money to spend in one go, so I wanted to see what the consensus is.

Also, given rumours that a remake of the UCS Falcon will be coming out soon (not sure how realistic these are, but for the sake of discussion), how do people imagine this will affect the secondary market price of the current UCS Falcon?

Thanks,

Albus

[Robianco]

I think the biggest issue on the growth of value is how long it's been in the market. 7 years is a long time and there's a lot of them around. Most of the figures in the set have been updated since it's release.

How many of the parts are unique in the build also? 10179 has several parts... quite important ones that are unique to that set and so push the price up even on a BL version.

I'd say that were not really likely to see a 10188 in the £1000-£1500 price range. Cloud City is rarer and has some incredibly rare figures... figures that are totally unique to that set... and even that doesn't reach those figures.

[PromocjaLego]

It will take a long time before 10188 will be much worth it.

[Slick Willie]

I think the Death Star would be a poor investment. I would put it in the same catagory as investing in Airline Stocks.

Investing is about having something that not many people have, but a lot of people want. I think you would be better off stashing something away that is "Limited" or seasonal.

[DanishLegoLover]

you are forgetting something. There weren't many Falcons sold, thats why the price has exploded. Death star 10188 is the most sold lego set EVER, its not even close to being rare, it will take ATLEAST 10 years before this will increase in price, since everybody owns it. I would recommend this set, not for investment, but because this set is awesome :D

[TheLegoDr]

There will always be new buyers that missed out on a retired set, so a modest bump in price might be acceptable to them. However, I agree with the length of time it has been on the market and the number of sets out there already (including the number of people who bought them early to invest in) would really dilute the buying pool. Which could be good news for the people who missed out or never got around to buying one.

I don't own one, but it does look like a neat set. I priced it on bricklink in building it myself without the figures and it was still $250 or something crazy just in pieces alone. Since basically all of the figures have been remade, it doesn't add any uniqueness to appeal to the masses. I am a figure collector, but I prefer the best looking figures as opposed to older versions of licensed figures. Buying that set at $400 or higher (in my opinion) is a waste of money to me, so that's why I never bought in.

I'd also recommend buying a different advanced build that may not be around for too long. Haunted House would have been a good investment. I think people will eat that up for years to come, but I think it is retired already.

[Albus]

Thank-you all for your wise advice. I hadn't considered how long it's been on the market, so I'm glad I asked around (I also lack the experience)! Looks like I can save some money, thanks again

Albus

[Robianco]

I bought the Haunted House at last years VIP event... It's still one of my favourite sets!

There will always be new buyers that missed out on a retired set, so a modest bump in price might be acceptable to them. However, I agree with the length of time it has been on the market and the number of sets out there already (including the number of people who bought them early to invest in) would really dilute the buying pool. Which could be good news for the people who missed out or never got around to buying one.

I don't own one, but it does look like a neat set. I priced it on bricklink in building it myself without the figures and it was still $250 or something crazy just in pieces alone. Since basically all of the figures have been remade, it doesn't add any uniqueness to appeal to the masses. I am a figure collector, but I prefer the best looking figures as opposed to older versions of licensed figures. Buying that set at $400 or higher (in my opinion) is a waste of money to me, so that's why I never bought in.

I'd also recommend buying a different advanced build that may not be around for too long. Haunted House would have been a good investment. I think people will eat that up for years to come, but I think it is retired already.

[Sir_Basil_Ashton]

I personally believe the Death Star would be a terrible investment given how long it has been available at retail. There will always be people that missed out on it that will want it later but I feel like a lot of people have stockpiled this particular set in the hopes that it will reach the value of the retired UCS Falcon. I'd be surprised if the Death Star doubled in price 10 years after it retires. Just speculating.

[Darth Punk]

I can only imagine how many unopened sets are stacked taking up a great deal of space in peoples homes. Only reason to get an extra one now would be so you could give it to your kid when they get old enough. But even then I'm sure when it does retire eBay is going to swimming in them as people desperately try to unload them.

[Acchan]

I got a Deathstar (for myself) when I got back into Lego about 5 years ago. I can imagine quite a few investors have already gotten them with the belief that the set would retire so there are probably loads of them out there. There's probably way better sets dollar for dollar out there like the GE (which is already going for 300+) if you can get your hands on them.

I also second the HH, it's a lovely set and sits happily with my other modulars, that not so up kept place on the street.

[streifen]

The Death Star has been hanging around for a long time. In fact I think much longer than some City sets. Returns on this set, as many before me have mentioned, will take a long time to be substantial.

Moreover the box is quite huge thus taking up space.

Just buy 1 to play.

[SupaaSayajin]

Personally I think the Death star wont gain so much value after it vanishes from the stocks, it will probably jump to 500$ right away and to 600$ after 2 years and to 700$ after 4 years, so not really a very good investment, though there will always be those guys pushing the price (they are buying the sets for high price from each other to increase the ebay price tendency) The Town hall set has already gone from 200$ to almost 400$ in 2 month, so there are way better investments out there i guess..

[Vorkosigan]

The Death Star appears in the January 2015 print catalog so I'm guessing it still has a while till retirement.

[BlackVagrant]

I was having the same thought as thread starter Albus, and in fact was about to purchase one from a reseller at SGD620 a few weeks back. The following reasons stopped me:

1. Size of box: 59.6 x 58.5 x 17.1cm
   I tend to believe future buyers will want it mint in sealed box (MISB). So this entails that special care needs to be taken for the box condition, and with this size its not something easy to manage. You probably need to bubble wrap it and if possible "bullet proof" it within another box. Secondly, this should require local pick-up for potential buyers. Postage would be costly and i don't think the box will reach to buyer in good state. (But of course if you got a very good offer and decides to do personal free delivery.) Though one may also argue that this isn't a big issue, since the tendency for most "rich" buyers, would be that they are driving in some form of transport, but not forgetting this would mean that you need to arrange for pick up. (Potential no-show and you have to spend your time waiting for the buyer.)
   Source of box dimension: http://www.bricklink...m.asp?S=10188-1
   
2. Date of release: June 21, 2008
   I think one of the key fundamentals of economics, is supply. After 6 years and 6 months from the release date (and counting), i tend to believe that even when Lego decides to stop production and the set eventually becomes discontinued, the price will go up (yes, for sure), but the value would probably not skyrocket in quick succession. Comparing to the 10179 Ultimate Collector's Millennium Falcon (which was discontinued just shy of 3 years after released), the supply for 10188 Death Star should have potentially double or even tripled since the Lego community would have taken vested interest looking at how much Millennium Falcon managed to fetch after discontinuation. Just a wild guess that those people who doesn't have space or monetary constraint, is probably holding on to at least 2 sets at the moment.
   Source of millennium falcon: http://lego.wikia.co...llennium_Falcon
   Source of death star release date: http://lego.wikia.co...0188_Death_Star
   
3. Contention as Ultimate Collector's Series (UCS): No UCS plaque
   Okay, i'm sure this will be very contentious whether all UCS should have a plaque. In fact someone (source may not be verified) emailed Lego to enquire about not having a plaque for the Death star, and the following is Lego's reply:

   ...it's great to hear that you are enjoying the LEGO Star Wars™ Death Star™ set! The reason that the LEGO Star Wars™ R2-D2™ and Millennium Falcon™ come with a LEGO plaque is because they are part of the Ultimate Collector Series. The Star Wars™ Death Star™ is not part of this series and is actually meant to be a giant play set where the Ultimate Collector Series sets are designed as large display models.

   Whether this matter of fact may or may not affect the price once it is discontinued, it remains to be seen.
   Source: http://lego.wikia.co...i/Thread:288611
   

Nevertheless, the above points are just my opinion and i'm no expert in Lego-vesting. That said 10188 Death Star is definitely one of the must have sets for any Lego collector (even if you are not a fan of Star Wars - who isn't? ).

If you already own 1 set and is having second doubts to purchase another for investment, maybe you can try to convince yourself not to be stuck in the dilemma.

For you may be holding on to a spare set, but facing a hard time selling it off within your "expected" price in due time.

Edited December 29, 2014 by BlackVagrant

[Albus]

Thanks for that great analysis BlackVagrant. I think I'll rest easy knowing I have one for myself, and I won't have to buy one to cart around in bubble wrap until I can re-sell it!

I definitely agree with what everyone is saying about the Modulars and the Haunted House! They are definitely great sets!

[BlackVagrant]

Thanks for that great analysis BlackVagrant. I think I'll rest easy knowing I have one for myself, and I won't have to buy one to cart around in bubble wrap until I can re-sell it!

I definitely agree with what everyone is saying about the Modulars and the Haunted House! They are definitely great sets!

While I'm still contemplating to get 1 for personal collection... :(

[The Jersey Brick Guy]

While I'm still contemplating to get 1 for personal collection... :(

You should get one, I am by no means a Star Wars fan but I picked it simply because of it's sheer size. It's a $400.00 Lego set after all.

[BlackVagrant]

You should get one, I am by no means a Star Wars fan but I picked it simply because of it's sheer size. It's a $400.00 Lego set after all.

I have space constraint and at the moment i'm trying to restrict myself to smaller modular (though they are quite large as well), and minifigures. I wish i have a room just for Lego.

And if i don't have monetary limitations, i'm sure the first MOC i'll do would be the imperial shuttle scene.

[neoconagenda]

I have always passed on this set because it is a play set as well as having a large box. I try to keep every box for all of my sets so that if and when I sell them off I will have them complete, so the box is an issue (found this out with the SSD box). From an investment POV I just dont see it fetching much more than $600 to $650 MISB for many years after EOL. I do believe it will be an excellent set to buy, enjoy, and sale for no loss after its gone...