Secret Enemies - Day Two

[Bob]

SECRET ENEMIES

Day Two: Where's the Night Kills?

Everyone looked around, but there were no pictures.

"Hey, what's up?" you ask me. "Where's the pictures?"

Well, nothing happened last night and nothing will happen any night so there's no need for pictures every single morning.

"That's dumb." you say.

Well, I am a bit distracted at the moment but I don't want to delay the day, and since there's no need for pictures as I said I can put it up without having to do much of anything except pick a name out of a hat and copy and paste the opening bit from Day One.

"I'll never play in another Bob game again!"

But...I was thinking of hosting Excalibur IV sometime after this...

"Wait!" a voice cries out from inside the game itself, causing both Bob and the viewer to look.

"Wasn't me, I didn't say anything." said the janitor

It was Betsy Bowers / Forresto!

"I've just been told I'm needed for a huge oil spill down in the bay! I can't be here anymore."

Everyone backed away from her, waiting to see how she would be mod-killed, but instead, she simply entered her car and left.

Wait, before you go Betsy! Are you the Godfather?

"Don't you already know that answer, you're the host. I'm not the Godfather."

And with that, Betsy drove out of town and out of the game.

~~~

Characters (11)

Lindsey Green - Khscarymovie4

Ralph Brooks - Actor Builder

Joshua Sutton - Peanuts

Scott Howell - Jackjonespaw

Erik Kelly - Umbra-Manis

Patricia Davis - Tariq J

Anne Martin - Mediumsnowman

Michael Wright - Jluck

Edward Cook - Chromeknight

Christina Phillips - Fhomess

Robert Butler - Dragonfire

Out of Town:

Betsy Bowers - Forresto

DAY TWO

Today's Mayor is Joshua Sutton / Peanuts!

He must pick a Town Council Chair and nominate that person publicly here. Then you will have 24 hours to approve his government by voting either Yes or No. He should do so ASAP without delay.

Remember, if three governments fail in a row (that would be 72 hours theoretically - three 24 hour periods), then the top card is flipped and that policy is enacted.

[Khscarymovie4]

So Betsy is out of town, does this mean she can come back later in the game?

[Peanuts]

But the chance of all three cards being Town is so slim that anyone who is confirmed to have passed on two Town cards almost certainly discarded a scum card and therefore is likely to be Town.

Also, a scum Mayor might have wanted to discard the town card and say that he was given three scum cards, so that a scum policy would be passed.

I agree that a scum mayor might have done that when given 2 scum cards and a town card, but I disagree with the first part. What you say is that someone who discards a scum card is likely to be town, but if a scum mayor receives two town cards and has to pass at least one on to the TCC (assuming the TCC is town), no matter what they do, a town policy is enacted, so they can easily fake this without giving up anything. So if we learn that two town cards were received by the TCC, we don't know whether it's a town member who rightly discarded a scum card or a scum member who discarded a scum card to pretend to be the former. We get no info from this, and the hypothetical scum mayor is not cleared at all.

But we know that if the TCC receives a town card and a scum card, there is a 67% chance that the third card is also a scum card, in which case the scum could have forced the TCC to pass a scum policy. If we assume a scum mayor would choose to do this, that means the chance of the mayor being scum is 33% from our point of view. Which means there is a point in passing on one of each, even for a scum mayor.

Anyway, I think you contributed more than anyone else yesterday, and I don't have any strong town reads yet. I will nominate Robert Butler/Dragonfire.

Does the mayor have to vote? Ed voted, so I guess I will also vote yes, obviously.

Also, I am fairly suspicious of Anne Martin. She spoke up three times yesterday. The main reason I'm suspicious of her is because she voted "No" yesterday, and I think the reason that Lindsey was inexperienced was not a good one. Even Christina's reason of generating more voting patterns (if I understood it correctly) made more sense, even though I disagree with it. Then she completely disappeared until after the vote, when she wrote this:

It seems to me that at least one of them is town.

CK could have been given a couple possibilities, based on what KH said:

2 town 1 scum

2 scum 1 town

In the first case, CK throws out the town card, because he's scum.

In the second case, CK throws out the scum card, because he's town.

Then KH picks the town card, which we know, because he's also town.

So, if KH is telling the truth, CK has a 50% chance of being town and KH has a 100% chance of being town.

But of course this all goes out the window if KH is lying.

First of all, it's mathematically and logically wrong. Not that being bad at maths makes you scum, mind you. Still, it's wrong. Second, it adds pretty much nothing, but it looks like ishe is contributing

Also, she suggested herself as TCC, which is not inherently suspicious. I think it makes as much sense for a scum member to nominate herself as for a town member.

All of her three posts had some relevance, but none really contributed anything. It seems like a scum member trying to go the middle road.

What do you think?

[Bob]

So Betsy is out of town, does this mean she can come back later in the game?

No, out of town means out of the game. Forresto is unable to continue playing.

[Dragonfire]

Will we learn Betsy's alignment now?

Also, I will vote Yes, obviously.

[Actor Builder]

Goodbye Betsy! Have fun at the oil spill!

A Government consisting of Josh and Rob? Well, I'll have to think on this, but it sounds like something to think on!

Yesterday worked out very nicely, so can I assume that today will as well?

I voted "yes" yesterday, so logically speaking, voting "No" would make this day a "Noterday", if we follow the pattern!

Much to pontificate...

[Khscarymovie4]

Nothing about Robert seemed suspicious yesterday so I will vote YES.

[mediumsnowman]

Please, Joshua, explain how my reasoning is "mathematically and logically wrong."

I don't think voting no is that suspicious. I simply didn't think Lindsey had the experience or was qualified to serve as the TCC, which our host informed us was a very important position.

I will vote yes as I have no complaints about our dear Robert and we don't have much to go on anyways.

[fhomess]

Goodbye Betsy! Have fun at the oil spill!

A Government consisting of Josh and Rob? Well, I'll have to think on this, but it sounds like something to think on!

Yesterday worked out very nicely, so can I assume that today will as well?

I voted "yes" yesterday, so logically speaking, voting "No" would make this day a "Noterday", if we follow the pattern!

Much to pontificate...

Again with the nonsensical non-contributions. Ralph, come out and say what you think when you come here. You're wasting space and oxygen by telling us that you have to think on it. Think first, then come and tell us what you care to say.

As for Rob... I'll have to think on that one. ;)

Just kidding. I'm going to vote No.

We have two primary pieces of information available to us in this game that is concreted. First, we have information about who the mayor picks as TCC. Second, we have information about the policies chosen/enacted by the Mayor/TCC. The game moves one step closer towards the end every time a policy is enacted. Thus, each time we choose the first mayor/TCC combination early in the game, we're advancing the game with less information about the other players than we could have had. Right now, I know who Edward nominated for TCC and who Joshua chose. I don't have any fundamental issue with Joshua's selection method, however it seems to me that we gain more information by allowing another mayor to nominate someone else, too. Then we learn something about those folks. Had we done that yesterday, even only once, we'd have information on one additional person. We'd have gotten some information on the new mayor and TCC at the expense of knowing what Lindsey would've done. Today, we're essentially faced with the same choice of information.

Now... I'm not sure yet how far down that information gathering track we should go. Perhaps until we pass the first scum policy. But it seems like a worthy risk to take. I'm not entirely comfortable getting to the third regime vote since a failure to accept that third regime results in the top card being passed, and that favors scum.

[Tariq j]

I too will vote YES I see nothing wrong with Robert.

Medium: Well to be fair none of us ould really be considered "experiened" seeing as we're all technically new to the game.

[Peanuts]

Please, Joshua, explain how my reasoning is "mathematically and logically wrong."

I don't think voting no is that suspicious. I simply didn't think Lindsey had the experience or was qualified to serve as the TCC, which our host informed us was a very important position.

I will vote yes as I have no complaints about our dear Robert and we don't have much to go on anyways.

Sure, I can explain. I was referring to this line, which concludes your statement:

So, if KH is telling the truth, CK has a 50% chance of being town and KH has a 100% chance of being town.

But of course this all goes out the window if KH is lying.

As others said, Lindsey doesn't have to be 100% town even if she is not lying. There's the logic part. Also, the chance of Ed being town is not 50%. Given that we know the other two cards, the chance of the third card being a scum card is ~67%, so that's the chance of him being town. There's the mathematical part. And that's of course only if they decide that the best course of action if given two scum cards and one town card is to eliminate the town card.

But I asked you how experience translates into qualification as TCC, and you didn't answer. The only thing that really matters is that the TCC is town.

Again with the nonsensical non-contributions. Ralph, come out and say what you think when you come here. You're wasting space and oxygen by telling us that you have to think on it. Think first, then come and tell us what you care to say.

As for Rob... I'll have to think on that one. ;)

Just kidding. I'm going to vote No.

We have two primary pieces of information available to us in this game that is concreted. First, we have information about who the mayor picks as TCC. Second, we have information about the policies chosen/enacted by the Mayor/TCC. The game moves one step closer towards the end every time a policy is enacted. Thus, each time we choose the first mayor/TCC combination early in the game, we're advancing the game with less information about the other players than we could have had. Right now, I know who Edward nominated for TCC and who Joshua chose. I don't have any fundamental issue with Joshua's selection method, however it seems to me that we gain more information by allowing another mayor to nominate someone else, too. Then we learn something about those folks. Had we done that yesterday, even only once, we'd have information on one additional person. We'd have gotten some information on the new mayor and TCC at the expense of knowing what Lindsey would've done. Today, we're essentially faced with the same choice of information.

Now... I'm not sure yet how far down that information gathering track we should go. Perhaps until we pass the first scum policy. But it seems like a worthy risk to take. I'm not entirely comfortable getting to the third regime vote since a failure to accept that third regime results in the top card being passed, and that favors scum.

Okay, I have to admit, I only just now understood your reasoning for voting "No" I can get behind why you're doing it, but I have to think some more whether I agree with it or not. I definitely won't vote "No" today, because I know I'm town and I don't want to risk the mayor's position falling to the scum, but your reasoning makes sense.

And I agree: Contribute something, Ralph!

[Dragonfire]

While I can see why you're voting No, Christina, I feel that constant failing of governments would only lead to instability and would help scum. If none of you have a problem with Joshua's choice of me, then you should vote Yes to efficiently choose a government. Only if you actually disagree with a mayor's choice of TCC or distrust the person in question should these measures be taken IMO. From my point of view, I know I'm town so me being TCC would be immensely preferable to a person of unknown alignment being TCC, as they could well be scum. As I said before, switching governments helps scum, as they benefit from governments failing and they can vote tactically to prevent townies from becoming the TCC (since they know who is town and who isn't)

[Chromeknight]

We can reasonably surmise Betsy isn't the godfather. Losing that role would break the game. So it's most likely she was town.

I know I'm town, and it's most likely Lindsey is.

That means from the nine players left, we have three scum, one godfather and five townies.

If Joshua is scum then Robert is town. There is no point stacking the council yet, the Mayor controls what the TCC sees, so can manipulate it so a townie must pass a scum policy. Or he could be the GF being set up to appear townie by passing a town policy.

If Joshua is town, it's fifty/fifty as to whether Robert is scum (or GF) or town. If he's the GF, he'll pass a town policy, as above, but otherwise he'll pass a scum policy and lie about the options presented.

In either case, against what Robert was saying above, it isn't simply a question of is the TCC town, but is the Mayor or not, and why was Robert chosen.

Failing governments is a risk, and one that in my experience people are often unwilling to do. But Christina is right. Not failing goverments advantages the scum, who want to rush decisions, push stuff through without discussion and set up the GF to be voted TCC when the time is ripe.

All in all, I'm voting no at this point.

[jluck]

I see the logic of a no vote, but right now I'm more interested in the policies people choose as opposed to the TCC they choose. With the number of cards remaining, there's a very high probability that at least 2 Mafia cards will be chosen, so I want to see how this government handles it. So I'll vote "yes".

[Bob]

Will we learn Betsy's alignment now?

No. All you know is that Betsy is not the Godfather.

[JackJonespaw]

I'll vote yes, because I don't have a reason to not.

I'd also like to look into how exactly Forresto died - it wasn't the mayor's night action, so does that mean the scum have night actions?

[Umbra-Manis]

I don't have anything against Robert right now, and If I don't do it now, I'll probably forget so: I Vote Yes

I'll vote yes, because I don't have a reason to not.

I'd also like to look into how exactly Forresto died - it wasn't the mayor's night action, so does that mean the scum have night actions?

I'm interested in this as well? Was the policy enacted yesterday the banishment of a random player?

[Tariq j]

Well the only way a person can die if the mayor enacts 4 mafia policies I believe, so maybe the scum did get a kill of someosort.

[Chromeknight]

I'd also like to look into how exactly Forresto died - it wasn't the mayor's night action, so does that mean the scum have night actions?

Guv Bob has told us, Betsy isn't dead. It wasn't the scum. She had to leave the council for ... Work reasons.

If we, as a council pass enough of scum policies, the Mayor will gain various powers of office, one of which is to boot people off the council, (ie. Kill them). It's not a scum power, it's a mayor power. And it's not a night power, it doesn't happen between days, the mayor makes the choice in open session of council meeting, we can help them make the decision, if it comes to pass.

The mayor is important, people.

[Bob]

Yes: 8 (Peanuts, Dragonfire, Khscarymovie4, mediumsnowman, Tariq j, jluck, JackJonespaw, Umbra-Mantis)

No: 2 (fhomess, Chromeknight)

The government passes! Reminder that the Mayor and Town Council Chair are now barred from posting in this thread.

[Actor Builder]

That means from the nine players left, we have three scum, one godfather and five townies.

Wait! Is this fact? Did Bob say so? Numbers elude me!

[Tariq j]

Guv Bob has told us, Betsy isn't dead. It wasn't the scum. She had to leave the council for ... Work reasons.

If we, as a council pass enough of scum policies, the Mayor will gain various powers of office, one of which is to boot people off the council, (ie. Kill them). It's not a scum power, it's a mayor power. And it's not a night power, it doesn't happen between days, the mayor makes the choice in open session of council meeting, we can help them make the decision, if it comes to pass.

The mayor is important, people.

But that's very risky, passing four mafia policies accounts for a kill which, whilst may be useful, only helps the scum achieve their goal.

I'll vote yes, because I don't have a reason to not.

I'd also like to look into how exactly Forresto died - it wasn't the mayor's night action, so does that mean the scum have night actions?

It obviously can't have been a town player, and I don't think it was the mafia, I would imagine the mafia having a killing action. I think it could've been the godfather.

[Bob]

I'd also like to look into how exactly Forresto died - it wasn't the mayor's night action, so does that mean the scum have night actions?

To clarify, Forresto told me that he could no longer play, so I removed him from the game. The scum do not have night actions.

[Chromeknight]

Wait! Is this fact? Did Bob say so? Numbers elude me!

I went from 'it's most likely she was town' (8 to 3 on) to an unstated 'if she was town then...' That should be contextually read at the start of the sentence you quote.

Yes it could now be eight town, two scum, one godfather (the Guv has confirmed Betsy wasn't the GF).

Given three scum is the number for ten players, and we had twelve, dropping them to two in eleven would disadvantage them.

So it is reasonable to expect that the breakdown of roles you quote is correct, even if it's unconfirmed by the host. And we've no reason to think he will now come out and confirm it, if he was going to he would have already.

As for this current legislative session.

We know there are 14 cards left, 5 town, 9 scum.

Three town cards (a bad result for town even though it means a town policy is passed) is about 2% chance.

Three scum cards is about 23%

Two town, one scum is about 24%

(This means if Robert sees two town cards, Joshua is very likely town, that he threw a scum card rather than a third town)

Two scum one town is the most likely at about 50%

If a scum policy passes then one of three things happened.

Joshua drew three scum cards (about one in four chance) - we gain no info on Joshua and Robert.

Joshua drew two scum and a town card (about one in two) and tossed the town. -if Joshua can post first, he can claim he handed Robert one of each, otherwise Robert reveals he was handed two scum cards and Joshua needs to claim the third was also scum to avoid being outed.

Thirdly Joshua could be handed two town and a scum (one in four chance) for a scum card to be played then, both Joshua and Robert would have to discard town cards, meaning they were both scum and communicating about what message they'd be putting out. Look for lots of fingerpointing, indirect blaming and no clear statements that the other is lying.

[Actor Builder]

Given three scum is the number for ten players...

Oho! That is the missing logic I was missing! I understand you now!