UCS set discounts: Is 50% too much?

[kibosh]

Now, I doubt they would sell B-Wings at a loss, so let's just put it at that - I believe they are still making a profit at $100, just not much of one. The point is that, IMO, there's no such thing as "too much" of a discount on LEGO.

Agreed. It's just a bunch of plastic bricks. No way is there $100 worth of material there. I doubt there's $10 of ABS. TLG is still making money, or breaking even, at 50% off.

Waiting for sales or discounts is just too much of a gamble for me. With most sets staying on the shelves for at least six months, the best idea is just to keep an eye on a given set. Ifit's not selling well in a number of regions, then maybe it might be going to sale. If it's a dying licensed theme, it could also be going to sale.

I love LEGO. But, I never pay full price. I simply don't NEED it. I want it, but it's not a necessity. I only buy it on sale. If it doesn't go on sale, and I miss out on a set, so what? I'll figure out a way to build it with what I have. LEGO is a luxury good, plain and simple.

[AndyC]

I just want the aftermarket to stay where it is should I need to sell in the future, although I hope I never have to. I do not hoard boxed sets, they are always built and displayed.

Collectors of pretty much anything would like their particular aftermarket to stay healthy and thus guarantee the value of their collection. But the world is a fickle old place and you always have to accept that might not be the case - even without big sales you could never really know that Star Wars won't suddenly fall from fashion and the demand for sets dry up entirely. It's always going to be pure speculation.

[Faefrost]

I think the speed that this set sold at 50% off, vs how it seemed a slow seller at full price is probably a sign that there is a more reasonable sweet spot somewhere between the two points. Remember we hand over our money to Lego based on our perception of value. I'm betting if they had set this set initially at $150 it would have been a top seller and might have warranted another production run. If the X Wing was $150 they would have trouble keeping them on the shelves. People have mental thresholds of pricing. Hard walls were they balk. The UCS sets have been a bit above those lately.

[Blondie-Wan]

I would contend that it's somewhat different now. The UCS aftermarket has really took off the past five years, otherwise I can't see that Falcon deal ever happening. Now you've got a whole other market of people buying sets at deals (hence the Limit 5 per order) for future resale. I personally like to know that if I buy a UCS it'll hold its value and increase with inflation should I be forced to sell it, but if resellers are stockpiling at 50% off and then flooding the market when it's retired it would hurt the resale. TLG needs that resale to go up, otherwise why feel forced to buy a set when you know you can get it whenever you feel like it for relatively the same price?

I don't believe this one-time, two-day sale is going to make the set decrease in value over the long haul. A year after it's discontinued, it'll routinely sell for substantially above MSRP, I'm sure.

Moreover, even if it isn't, speculators aren't "owed" some sort of secondary market value increase. They're already handsomely rewarded for being better off already in that they get to buy and enjoy this nice LEGO set. Even if its value plummets to five bucks, they at least have the building experience, the display piece that results, the getting to swoosh it around, etc.... which is what TLG actually sells it for; I don't see "massive investment potential" touted in the product description at Shop at Home, just "rotating, self-levelling cockpit" and the like. Anyone who buys it gets those construction and play features; anyone who also gets aftermarket appreciation is getting an additional bonus. That's fine and dandy (for them) if it happens, but I don't think they're entitled to it, especially given that people who can afford this set at full price are frankly doing a lot better financially than a lot of other people to begin with.

But my main point is this: I would like the X-wing, but won't buy it now. Why? I'd buy it at full price now over a 15% discount later, but the chance of a 25-50% discount makes me wait (although unlikely because it's the X-wing). Knowing that TLG could offer such a great deal leads me to wait, and if others do the same then TLG will have to offer the deal to clear shelves, and the trend gets worse.

Well, I wouldn't consider it a "trend," exactly, just a one-time sale. Things go on temporary sales all the time, and then go back to full price (as this set has); I don't see why LEGO UCS sets should be exempt from this. And you can never be sure when (or if) a set will go on such a sale, either; anyone who sits around waiting for a set to drop in price below MSRP risks having to pay above MSRP, or missing out on it entirely. It's your call, of course, as it is for all of us.

Edited May 8, 2013 by Blondie-Wan

[Ritz Brick]

A lot of big sets, like UCS ones has been sold at huge discounts at the end!

The 10018 Darth Maul was 75% off in the end, bought me two.

The UCS Millennium Falcon was 50% off, bought me one extra at $250.

The UCS Death Star II was 50% off, bought me three.

Now go check the prices on those! So if you just wait some time the prize will rise again. How much depends on how iconic the set is.

Not to mention 10030 felt like it was discounted forever.

[kibosh]

I think the speed that this set sold at 50% off, vs how it seemed a slow seller at full price is probably a sign that there is a more reasonable sweet spot somewhere between the two points. Remember we hand over our money to Lego based on our perception of value. I'm betting if they had set this set initially at $150 it would have been a top seller and might have warranted another production run. If the X Wing was $150 they would have trouble keeping them on the shelves. People have mental thresholds of pricing. Hard walls were they balk. The UCS sets have been a bit above those lately.

"People have mental thresholds of pricing." I have said this forever, and firmly believe it. Totally agree the B-Wing would have been a totally different situation at $150. $200 is a relatively new, and very high, price point for LEGO collectors. Think about it. At the end of the day, it's just a toy. That is a LOT of money for some plastic. $150, while not THAT much less, is something I'm more accustomed to because of the modulars. Easier for my mind to wrap itself around it.

[Faefrost]

I would contend that it's somewhat different now. The UCS aftermarket has really took off the past five years, otherwise I can't see that Falcon deal ever happening. Now you've got a whole other market of people buying sets at deals (hence the Limit 5 per order) for future resale. I personally like to know that if I buy a UCS it'll hold its value and increase with inflation should I be forced to sell it, but if resellers are stockpiling at 50% off and then flooding the market when it's retired it would hurt the resale. TLG needs that resale to go up, otherwise why feel forced to buy a set when you know you can get it whenever you feel like it for relatively the same price?

The aftermarket is about to crash. They just haven't realized it yet. You can tell from your first sentence there. "Things are different now... The UCS aftermarket really took off in the past five years." And "now you have a whole lot of people buying sets at deals for future resale"

This is what is known as a speculator bubble. When you can clearly witness regular people buying up a product because it "will be worth lots more later", then chances are you are already too late in the market. The Falcon sells for $4000 because it was originally bought by fans of Lego and Star Wars for personal enjoyment. Not speculators. Even at the discounted price. Whereas with the B Wing speculators will be lucky to get 10% return on it. They probably lost money on the Obi Wan Jedi Starfighter.

The real hope is that Lego takes steps to deflate the bubbles a bit, rather than letting them simply burst. They are in a weird position for this sort of thing. While they see no profit from the aftermarket, they do see the initial increase in sales from speculators. They just have to be careful because these aren't real true growth, and will disappear in a flash if he bubble bursts. This nearly took down Marvel and DC comics in the 90's. the release of a new version of the X Wing seems like a good way to throttle the growing bubble a bit so it doesn't damage them.

[AndyC]

The real hope is that Lego takes steps to deflate the bubbles a bit, rather than letting them simply burst. They are in a weird position for this sort of thing. While they see no profit from the aftermarket, they do see the initial increase in sales from speculators. They just have to be careful because these aren't real true growth, and will disappear in a flash if he bubble bursts. This nearly took down Marvel and DC comics in the 90's. the release of a new version of the X Wing seems like a good way to throttle the growing bubble a bit so it doesn't damage them.

Aftermarket sales are rarely a good thing for any manufacturer. Whilst it's true they do benefit from speculative purchases initially, the aftermarket effectively becomes a competitor for all new products. It's particularly troublesome if the original product effectively had to be "dumped" at heavily discounted sale prices since the resellers are then operating with much larger room for margins than TLG themselves can achieve.

[Orange Leader]

Most LEGO products are quite steep in price already in Europe. Adding a higher tax rate (21%) in the Netherlands makes some expensive sets not very likely to buy. I'm speaking about the recent UCS X-Wing that goes for € 229,95 which TLG may keep. But I feel sorry for the FOLs from Australia, New Zealand, China, etc.

Whining aside, I'm buying at least not too many sets because of the high prices, so I have more space in my home left.

[BrickG]

Geeze I'd love that Falcon to come out again. Rerelease pleace. I'd scoop up at least two at launch. This is the single most wanted Lego set for me but it's like $3000. :(

I was too young and poor when it first went 50% off. I saw the sale. Wanted it. But there was no way I could afford it. At the moment I could easily afford it! Come on Lego!

[kibosh]

With the re-release of the UCS X-Wing, can we hope that TLG may at some point re-release the UCS Falcon as well?

[TheGreenMachine]

With the re-release of the UCS X-Wing, can we hope that TLG may at some point re-release the UCS Falcon as well?

I think with the re-release of the X-Wing, re-releases of any other vehicles are possible, although TLG may rather tend to re-release the most iconic Starwars ships. I wouldn't be surprised to see another collectors edition of the clssic Imperial Star Destroyer, as well as the Millenium Falcon. Also remember that there are no really iconic Starwars vehicles left (except the AT-AT), which haven't been released as collectors sets. I'd love to see a Nebulon-B or Slave-I, but I don't think they will be done as they are simply not iconic enough. And with the epic fail of the B-Wing (although I love it) they will keep their hands off any secondary vehicles for collector sets.

[Faefrost]

I think with the re-release of the X-Wing, re-releases of any other vehicles are possible, although TLG may rather tend to re-release the most iconic Starwars ships. I wouldn't be surprised to see another collectors edition of the clssic Imperial Star Destroyer, as well as the Millenium Falcon. Also remember that there are no really iconic Starwars vehicles left (except the AT-AT), which haven't been released as collectors sets. I'd love to see a Nebulon-B or Slave-I, but I don't think they will be done as they are simply not iconic enough. And with the epic fail of the B-Wing (although I love it) they will keep their hands off any secondary vehicles for collector sets.

I wouldn't rule out a nice little A Wing. It would fall in line with the successful Snowspeeder. I think Slave 1 is problematic because of the curves that would be needed. I think we would see a UCS Venator before a new old school SD. Weirdly (or maybe not so much) the Venator has become one of the favorites from the PT in the more adult modeling community. There is also room for some truly awesome UCS ground vehicles. The CuuSoo Jawa Sandcrawler is a good example. Or an ATAT or Juggernaut. ( I think the real secret is it has to be either OT, or if PT, clone related. No Droid or Jedi vehicles from the PT). A nicely detailed UCS Luke's Landspeeder would be cool, although figures may be a deal killer.

The B Wing didn't have sales issues because of its subject. It had them because its price was too high, its piece count too low, and the most rabid fans didn't care for the cockpit design. As we saw, as soon as the price dropped it flew off the shelves and sold out the worldwide supply in about an hour.

[bjorn77]

Also remember that there are no really iconic Starwars vehicles left (except the AT-AT), which haven't been released as collectors sets.

Which is why they need to make a collector's AT-AT. I can't think of any other set I'd rather have. And while they're at it, why not make it motorized as well, provided TLG can pull it off without sacrificing accuracy :).

[StoutFiles]

I wouldn't rule out a nice little A Wing.

The lackluster sales of the Jedi Starfighter (similar design) and now B-wing (same movie) may make an A-wing appearance much less likely.

The CuuSoo Jawa Sandcrawler is a good example

While that is amazing, there's just no way we get something at that level, the cost would be too great. I bet we'll get one eventually, just not nearly as good.

I wouldn't be surprised to see another collectors edition of the clssic Imperial Star Destroyer, as well as the Millenium Falcon.

Just about guaranteed. TLG is in the money making business, they'd have to be dumb to not look at what's worth the most on the aftermarket and rerelease it. I think they did just that with the rerelease of the X-wing.

Edited May 9, 2013 by StoutFiles

[Alternator]

Which is why they need to make a collector's AT-AT. I can't think of any other set I'd rather have. And while they're at it, why not make it motorized as well, provided TLG can pull it off without sacrificing accuracy :).

They have actually done precisely this:

10178 Motorized Walking AT-AT

I really regret not getting this particular model, but oh well.

The CuuSoo Jawa Sandcrawler is a good example

While that is amazing, there's just no way we get something at that level, the cost would be too great. I bet we'll get one eventually, just not nearly as good.

That would be this?

10144 Sandcrawler

Edited May 9, 2013 by Alternator

[TheLegoDr]

Since I am just getting in on this conversation now, I missed a lot of good debate.

But I bought a B-wing only because of the price and I'm not that big of a SW collector. I like some of the sets/ships, but I mostly prefer the figures. But at that price, I bought one thinking it might be a good intro to the UCS line if I want to in the future. At $100 it is much more do-able instead of at $200. I think the $200 hurt the sales, so they had a lot of product to move. As stated, I'm not a huge SW fan, but that new X-Wing looks amazing and I'd be willing to pick that up now. Even though I had no interest in UCS before. So LEGO just got themselves a new collector/fan that normally wouldn't have due to the price.

I highly doubt too many more UCS will ever have that type of discount. I think it was only because it was a B-Wing. Granted, yes there were sales of some of those other iconic sets that are huge now. But I don't see the B-Wing being worth a ton of money and I didn't buy one to sell. I can imagine a lot of people did. Their choice.

I do think TLG did the smart move by releasing a new X-Wing instead of another lesser known ship in a row.

[Brix]

I wouldn't rule out a nice little A Wing. It would fall in line with the successful Snowspeeder.

I'm inclined to disagree. I bought the system scale A Wing recently, and had to go and rewatch RoTJ on May 4 just to spot where it appears. Despite being a casual SW fan (OT, PT and CW), I had no idea where that ship appeared. On the other hand the Snowspeeder is instantly recognisable to me - it's pretty much THE memorable rebel ship from Ep V.

I'm the same with the B-wing - I have no idea where it appears in the OT movies, which is why I'm not interested in it (even if I could have picked it up for $100).

I think we would see a UCS Venator before a new old school SD. Weirdly (or maybe not so much) the Venator has become one of the favorites from the PT in the more adult modeling community.

I agree about the Venator. I have the 8039 set from 2009 and think it's great. I'd rather have a UCS sized Venator before a re-released ISD. I know the OT gets a lot more love than the PT so I'm not sure that's universal, but it's a great looking ship and very recognisable given its appearance in the PT movies and the CW cartoons.

[bjorn77]

They have actually done precisely this:

10178 Motorized Walking AT-AT

No, I'm talking about a UCS style AT-AT. A bigger, more accurate model. Motorization would just be a bonus.

[StoutFiles]

That would be this?

10144 Sandcrawler

I always forget that that is considered a UCS model. I own it, and it is a nice set, but it doesn't feel like a UCS. Neither does the Tantive IV. Perhaps it's the abundance of play features and the lack of a stand/display card.

[kibosh]

Great discussion here! I think TLG could safely release another UCS Falcon for sure. An UCS AT-AT would be great, too. And you are right. These are very iconic vehicles. Even non Star Wars fans recognize them.

[leoparder]

Do you think we could start to see non-transport UCSs ? Like the R2D2 ?

I would love to see small items of Star Wars in large scale as UCSs :)

For example :

- Light sabers

- Droids and small robots

- Guns / arms

- Accessories and more !

[Blondie-Wan]

The Millennium Falcon in particular is an excellent candidate for redoing (I don't want to say "rerelease," since to me that implies releasing the exact same model design again, with the same parts and build and all, as opposed to doing a new version of the same ship). It's as iconic a vessel as it gets, and as glorious as 10179 is there are certainly areas where a new version could easily improve upon it (having any real interior at all being the most obvious example).

[The_Chosen_1]

^ Perhaps an eventual re-release of the Millennium Falcon could be based on its appearance in the sequel trilogy, assuming it shows up in them of course. That way it would be a simple rehash for those that already own 10179, and folks that don't own it would have a chance to.

[Alternator]

I always forget that that is considered a UCS model. I own it, and it is a nice set, but it doesn't feel like a UCS. Neither does the Tantive IV. Perhaps it's the abundance of play features and the lack of a stand/display card.

Mmm, I guess I find it a bit tricky, generally I take anything with the 10k numbering as being considered UCS level but that may not be entirely accurate. Still I was thinking that sandcrawler is the answer to a cut down UCS level sandcrawler.

I was lucky to pick up a copy of the Tantive IV 10198, I like it but certainly if you put it next to the 10019 Rebel Blockade Runner as I have seen in an online review it doesn't feel very UCS despite them both having the 10k numbering... I only emerged from my Dark Ages in 2010, and had no idea Lego had been releasing such awesome sets over the past decade.