Excalibur 2.0: Day Five

[Waterbrick Down]

It struck me as odd that Holloway wished me to try and influence the protector to target a different target than Wilder. That indeed did not happen and our Vig is still alive

It would matter if the the other target was more important than the vig, see below.

I really wanted to write a play, but I'm not much of a playwright, and can only do Grover impressions (near..... far!). However, since you all seem so bored, I'll propose a victim for today's lynch.

Player X has been very fun to talk with over the past few days, and has shared a lot of insight into which of you are scummy and which aren't based on post analysis. The problem is, Player X hasn't been willing to apply that post analysis consistently across the people he's been telling me. Some people were cleared by posts that struck me as less conclusive in his methodology than others who were not cleared by the same methodology, and vice versa.

I believe I did clarify that my method was "subjective" several times and if you'd mind sharing with me in private where I was wrong in the conclusions I reached, I'd be more than happy to discuss them. But you're failure to even mention that my conclusions were wrong in our private conversations leaves me scratching my head.

So for a little while I've been feeding Player X tidbits of truths and untruths to see where they might slip up. After my claim yesterday, I told this player that I was in contact with a protector and a PGO. Neither of which were true at the time. This player has done nothing but pester me in an effort to find out the identity of these roles, and when I did get in contact with the protector, learned that the protector would protect me last night. By this point Player X was in touch with some of the same people, and knew it, too, but still didn't know who the protector was.

You're not the only one who is trying to figure this thing out, so I'm left with pestering people and trying to collect information just like you.

It seems, however, that some very smart member of the town core allowed Player X to change the town plan and have me not be protected. I nearly cried when Player X told me I was not going to be protected, while Player X and his scum buddies did jumping jacks. As you know, I'm still here. It seems that Player X's request to change the town plan didn't go through after all! Yay!

Just to let you know, this is an assumtion that the scum tried to kill you. My influence to have the protector change from you was based on you're "very smart member of the town" telling me that there was a more important PR that needed protecting and you can ask him yourself if this is true.

This morning, Player Y contacted me to suggest that I had been saved by the protector after I had unwittingly targetted.... the PGO! Uh, right. Player Y assures me they were the PGO in the prequel (which was undoubtedly da bomb). Anyway, this is all well and good but it sure does seem a bit of an odd coincidence that Player Y suggested PGO to me after I had fabricated that idea to Player X. Are they connected? You be the judge!

How would Player Y know whom you had targetted? Or are you suggesting that Player Y is also scum and thus I must have blabbed to him (assuming that I'm scum by your logic).

Anyway, it also seems mighty odd that after spending a large effort into getting the town core to not protect me, that the scum kill didn't go through.

It wouldn't be odd if I wasn't scum.

For reasons I don't want to get into publicly, I have very little reason to believe the player the town blocker targeted was the scum killer. The protector confirms they protected me. So what that suggests is that the scum went for the obvious protector target after all. Maybe they thought I had been left unprotected?

Oh, and Player X keeps asking me questions such as:

"Who's the town protector?"

"Can you tell me now?"

"No?"

"How about now?"

To clue the rest of you in, player X is Ensign Holloway.

Does he seem as scummy to you as he does to me?

Like I said earlier, you're not the only one trying to figure things out I'll come out and claim Vanilla, because that's why I did what I did. I have no info from night action results, nothing with which to base my suspicions upon except PMing almost everyone on this ship, and analysing posts. You can ask Falcon in another life, it's what I do, I take the 8 to 10 hours to analyze everything that is said that most people decide to skip over and try to make some logical conclusions from it all. As to my technique, I'm the first to admit that it's subjective and while I won't reveal the findings of the technique because they are currently safe in townie hands already, I'll let you know how it works as by now most people have had it explained to them, or at least the ones that it has confirmed. Now stick with me here, because things are about to get complex.

I've spent hours collecting all of the statements that have been said by each of us during the day threads, everything from Pewter's accusations based on hair style, to Daly's theory about the scum killing everyone who knew about them in the simulation. It is sort of why I was so quiet the earlier days as I spent most of the time observing, not wanting to cause undue attention or let anyone know that they were being observed. Now a townie never really knows if the person he's replying to in thread is scum or loyal (apart from investigations) a scum on the other hand does (barring third factions), becuase of this fact a town's reply in the day thread will look different from a scum's reply. Watch how this works:

Example 1:

Person A (Town): I think person C is scummy because of the pants he's wearing.

Person B (Town): That is stupid, why would you even say that, you must be scum.

Example 2:

Person A (Scum): I think person C is scummy because of the pants he's wearing.

Person B (Town): That is stupid, why would you even say that, you must be scum.

Example 3:

Person A (Town): I think person C is scummy because of the pants he's wearing.

Person B (Scum): That is stupid, why would you even say that, you must be scum.

Example 4:

Person A (Scum): I think person C is scummy because of the pants he's wearing.

Person B (Scum): That is stupid, why would you even say that, you must be scum.

In examples 1-3 these are normal responses and one can logically declare that they are not on the same scum team. Example 4 requires a contrived conversation in order to appear like they are not on the same scum team. In most cases of the day thread, examples 1-3 will be prevalent, and unless the scum have a very good reason i.e. they are attempting to bus someone they will very rarely attempt example 4, as it is a lie and the more lies a scum weaves the more chance they have of getting caught in it, thus the best strategy is to tell as few lies as possible.

So after I spent a good couple of hours of looking at all the conversations I was able to "subjectively" determine which statements fell in examples 1-3 and thus was able to "determine" who was not on whose team.

Now all of this lynches on finding a confirmed scum player, then one can start looking at all the people the scum had conversations with during the day thread and "subjectively" determine that they were not on the same scum team and thus are town (assuming of course no third factions).

Gordon was the first confirmed scum and thus all my cross-referencing could be utilized and I started contacting all of those that were "confirmed" townies based on these conversations as well as the timing of several of Gordon's potential busses. By this time I was getting to around 7 people who had been "confirmed" and those who hadn't were by logic potential scum.

That's about it, I've worked on my method, contacted whom I thought it "confirmed" and tried to gather as much information as I could to either "confirm" them some more, or get potential scummy reactions from those whom I hadn't. Any questions?

[fhomess]

I'd just like to say that the lack of people commenting on this situation is disturbing to me. If you have something to say about it, and you're vanilla, I expect you to do it publicly. Silence on this matter will be considered avoidance and raise suspicion. I've spoken to a number of people in private, heck, I've heard a role claim from almost everyone left alive - whether it came directly from you or on your behalf through someone else. Almost all of the vanilla players have said something along the lines of "It's hard to contribute more unless the town core is telling us things." Well, let's have your opinions then!

[swils]

But it is hard to contribute! Really, though, I have felt like most of my suspicions have fallen on deaf ears, or been brushed aside with ease. Maybe I'm just dead wrong and the people I've been trying to address have already been investigated and cleared and thus brushing me aside is the exact-right course of action. It's still a bit discouraging, heh.

Holloway/WBD contacted me, believing I had a town role and proposing we bounce ideas off of each other. I wasn't able to offer him a claim, but did consider his suspicions and offer some of my own in return. At that time, I wasn't too bothered. He hadn't really stood out to me prior, and I can appreciate wanting to have someone to exchange thoughts with as a vanilla. I know that he has read my reply, but he has yet to get back in touch. For someone who claims to have been looking for a person to bounce ideas off of, to just drop the conversation after I didn't claim anything seems a lot like it was just fishing for a role claim. It's definitely suspicious activity. I was going to bring it up (since there really wasn't any other discussion going on), but Wilder/fhomess beat me to the punch while I was at work busy with engineering-stuffs.

[Inconspicuous]

Holloway/WBD contacted me, believing I had a town role and proposing we bounce ideas off of each other. I wasn't able to offer him a claim, but did consider his suspicions and offer some of my own in return.

I found myself in the same situation. It didn't feel like he was trying to probe, but the massive logic puzzle he claims to have created sounds just a little too good to be true. As I told him in private, I'm not going to immediately trust him just because he rightfully deduced that I'm town (scum could easily fake that). At the same time, he hasn't done anything suspicious in my eyes.

[swils]

"exact-right", "reasonable"... tomayto, tomahto, right?

At the same time, he hasn't done anything suspicious in my eyes.

Dropping communications after not getting any success from fishing for a role claim, that's the only thing that really got me. It seemed discussion worthy at least (especially with the lack of other talk, as I'd mentioned)

[Waterbrick Down]

Swils, in your case I was fishing on behalf of someone else, partially due to the fact that you happened to be one of the few people that my "massive logic puzzle" didn't clear.

[swils]

Well, at least don't leave me all alone on the engineering deck. It gets lonely! Sometimes when I'm up there, I'd swear I hear tree stumps laughing maniacally. Tree stumps!

[AwesomeStar]

I found myself in the same situation. It didn't feel like he was trying to probe, but the massive logic puzzle he claims to have created sounds just a little too good to be true. As I told him in private, I'm not going to immediately trust him just because he rightfully deduced that I'm town (scum could easily fake that). At the same time, he hasn't done anything suspicious in my eyes.

I was also contacted by Holloway and I agree with this. Unlike fhomess, who is trustworthy as he openly claimed vig in-thread and has worked with others to form the town core, WBD's questions and cross-referencing don't sit well with me. He has not presented any reasons as to why exactly we should trust him and the fact that he asked after PRs worries me a little. It could quite easily be a cunning scum plan to get us to open up, though hopefully everybody else he has contacted will realise this too and keep quiet.

[Waterbrick Down]

I would be interested in knowing what a Vanilla townie is supposed to do, if I'm correct several notable members of this crew have said that we should analyze behavior, look at voting patterns, and reread everything carefully. I've done all that and now becuase I've drawn conclusions from all of it and started acting upon them and following up with people in private trying to put everything together I'm suddenly scummy. If someone is a vanilla they need to get their bottom in gear and start analyzing things, we cannot simply wait and sit on our hands waiting for an investigator to come along and "clear" us so we can start contributing, sheep don't get the town anywhere. You'd be surprised what 10 hours of hard work could actually yield, maybe if more of us tried it sometime, we'd be getting somewhere.

[Scouty]

It would matter if the the other target was more important than the vig, see below.

Yeah, unless there's reason to suspect that the vig is at more risk than the other role. Last night proved those suspicions correct. From what I gathered in private and in public, you manage to persuade a player to change the protection (or at least that player was smart to mislead you), and you seemed quite happy about that and told the vig he was no longer being protected. Now, from here, you either are town and just wanted to discuss the "new" plan, or you told your scum buddies that a different player was being protected and that they/you were free to attack the vig, who I'm sure the scum are afraid of as we get more on their heels.

Just to let you know, this is an assumtion that the scum tried to kill you. My influence to have the protector change from you was based on you're "very smart member of the town" telling me that there was a more important PR that needed protecting and you can ask him yourself if this is true.

But, he was targeted by the scum killer The killer was not blocked last night, so unless he didn't go out tonight, I can't find another reason as to why to reject that the scum attacked the vig, but he was protected.

Like I said earlier, you're not the only one trying to figure things out I'll come out and claim Vanilla, because that's why I did what I did[...]

In examples 1-3 these are normal responses and one can logically declare that they are not on the same scum team. Example 4 requires a contrived conversation in order to appear like they are not on the same scum team. In most cases of the day thread, examples 1-3 will be prevalent, and unless the scum have a very good reason i.e. they are attempting to bus someone they will very rarely attempt example 4, as it is a lie and the more lies a scum weaves the more chance they have of getting caught in it, thus the best strategy is to tell as few lies as possible.

That's a pretty good strategy, but it also shows that scum can look very townie. Though he was suspected, Gordon fooled many people into thinking he was town. Besides being a dick, he didn't have much scummy-ness going for him.

That's about it, I've worked on my method, contacted whom I thought it "confirmed" and tried to gather as much information as I could to either "confirm" them some more, or get potential scummy reactions from those whom I hadn't. Any questions?

Did you get any potential scummy reactions?

[Fugazi]

From where I sit there are separate elements in the case against Holloway. I think that his methodology and efforts to find scum are extremely townie, in that scum wouldn't in my opinion spend so much energy to fabricate a fake analysis. His method is not foolproof, as it's a known fact that scum will sometimes take a shot at each other just to confuse townies -- as long as it doesn't endanger their teammates. However, it's very possible that useful results can be derived from this.

On the other hand, fishing for roles (why?) and trying to move a protector from the crew member who was very likely targeted for a kill last night is extremely unsettling. It doesn't matter if the advice was sound -- the fact is that if Holloway had been successful, it would have probably cost the life of our vigilante.

It's a shame though that we're still trying to figure out patterns and analyse behaviour when I was hoping for some good old-fashioned night results to make things easier. I guess I was spoiled by the tree stump yesterday!

[Scouty]

From where I sit there are separate elements in the case against Holloway. I think that his methodology and efforts to find scum are extremely townie, in that scum wouldn't in my opinion spend so much energy to fabricate a fake analysis. His method is not foolproof, as it's a known fact that scum will sometimes take a shot at each other just to confuse townies -- as long as it doesn't endanger their teammates. However, it's very possible that useful results can be derived from this.

It would be worth the effort if he could nab some of the unknown power roles so the scum can quietly surpress them.

[Bob]

I forgot to let you know, you can vote now.

[Capt.JohnPaul]

I've done all that and now becuase I've drawn conclusions from all of it and started acting upon them and following up with people in private trying to put everything together I'm suddenly scummy.

Well, yes you are. You contacted like, every single person on the ship asking for PR's.

Did you get any potential scummy reactions?

I agree. You can prove if someone is town, (all scum can.) No big deal. Can you find scum?

[Masked Builder]

I personally don't see Holloway as scummy at all. Nor do I have any other leads though.

[Tamamono]

While the case against Holloway is a good one, I feel the need to bring something else forward - something possibly more damning.

First, I must introduce that I am the town blocker - I see no reason to not reveal this since the scum already know this through Gordon.

Last night, Wilder, our vigilante, tried to shoot Ensign Toby Rockford. In addition, I blocked Rockford last night to make sure he didn't do anything. However, he's still here today... Wilder doesn't say he was blocked - apparently, his result only said that he failed. When Pie was blocked, it explicitly said that he was blocked. Why doesn't it say that now if Wilder was blocked? No, he just 'failed'. Could that mean Rockford was protected? Possibly, possibly... However, our town protector was protecting someone else last night. Could Rockford have been protected by the scum protector? Yes, I think this is what happened. And why would the scum protector protect a townie? The answer is: he wouldn't.

So, this means that Rockford is scum. In fact, this is probably the only explanation if you look at the facts.

With this I will

Vote: Toby Rockford (darkdragon)

and urge y'all to do the same.

[Rufus]

While the case against Holloway is a good one

Yes, and no. I was about to post all this, when you dropped the bombshell, so I'll cut it short.

I'm vanilla town. I'm not privvy to the conversation in which Holloway apparently tried to change the protector's target beyond what has been presented to everyone today, or of his apparent fishing for information. I will say that Holloway's attempts to find scum by reading through the security recordings or whatever it is we're supposed to call the previous day threads is behaviour consistent with that of a vanilla townie, even if I don't necessarily agree with his methodology. And I can vouch that he did that - I saw him there, whilst I was doing the same thing, though I suspect he didn't think I could see him.

The problem is that, as Vanderbilt pointed out, the assumption that scum don't argue with each other is erroneous. You just have to read the simulation to see examples, or many other past similar situations. The upshot of this is that people may have apparently been 'cleared' when really they have no business being cleared.

As to what this implies about Holloway, I think it's most likely he's telling the truth, but I'm worried that he's now trusting some people who are probably scum. I do find the apparent attempt to wrestle control of the town worrying, though - misguided at best, alarming at worst.

Anyhoo, this is much more important.

Last night, Wilder, our vigilante, tried to shoot Ensign Toby Rockford. In addition, I blocked Rockford last night to make sure he didn't do anything. However, he's still here today... Wilder doesn't say he was blocked - apparently, his result only said that he failed. When Pie was blocked, it explicitly said that he was blocked. Why doesn't it say that now if Wilder was blocked? No, he just 'failed'. Could that mean Rockford was protected? Possibly, possibly... However, our town protector was protecting someone else last night. Could Rockford have been protected by the scum protector? Yes, I think this is what happened. And why would the scum protector protect a townie? The answer is: he wouldn't.

I'd say this is pretty much irrefutable. I'll look forward to Rockford's response; but there doesn't seem to be a good reason not to vote now.

Vote: Ensign Toby Rockford (darkdragon)

[Scouty]

I've had the longest suspicion of Rockford, mostly due to her lackadaisical replies in thread, and this recent evidence is at least more compelling than that against Holloway.

Vote: Ensign Toby Rockford (darkdragon)

[fhomess]

I agree that this interpretation of last night's events makes a fair bit of sense, too, and lines up with everything I experienced.

Vote: Ensign Toby Rockford (darkdragon)

[Capt.JohnPaul]

Vote: Ensign Toby Rockford (darkdragon)

He's obviously wanted to be protected by the scum/needed. Now the next question is why.

[Masked Builder]

I have not like how Rockford was behaving myself. Vote: Ensign Toby Rockford (darkdragon)

[Fugazi]

Sounds like a solid lead. Much better that the previous anyway.

Vote: Ensign Toby Rockford (darkdragon)

[swils]

Can't argue with the logic. Does the Ensign have anything to say for himself?

Vote: Ensign Toby Rockford (darkdragon)

[Inconspicuous]

Last night, Wilder, our vigilante, tried to shoot Ensign Toby Rockford. In addition, I blocked Rockford last night to make sure he didn't do anything. However, he's still here today...

...Our town protector was protecting someone else last night.

This looks like a concrete case to me. That is, of course, assuming that all the PRs are telling the truth, but I see no reason to believe otherwise.

Vote: Toby Rockford (darkdragon)

[AwesomeStar]

Makes perfect sense to me. Shame we didn't get the result we were looking for but it's better than nothing!

Vote: Ensign Toby Rockford (darkdragon)