Excalibur 2.0: Day Three

[fhomess]

There have been like what, 4 or 5 different killer MOs so far? There can't be that many different killers, even if the scum swapped every night. Methinks that god really doesn't want us to derive clues from any of the visual night records, going so far as randomising the MOs. That's my theory anyway.

You know, if you're a Loyalist, you need to pay closer attention. There have been 4 kills and 3 different MO's. None of the theories that have been posited about the MO's are all that far out there. I can't understand why someone would suggest that the different MO's would belong to the same killer at this point unless you happen to know that's true.

As for where to go from here, hard to say. We have nothing solid to go on, only our observations of behaviour.

What have you observed so far, Lieutenant Harper? I've observed you casting no vote on Day 1, and the first vote for Ensign Pewter on Day 2, all while not contributing any original thought to the conversation to this point.

[AwesomeStar]

Solar "Wind" (i.e. radiation), ok. Our shields should block that out.

Metal Fatigue? What is this? BSG?

I'm an astrobiologist, not a physics major! And besides, plate warping is common among ships of both classes.

[LEGOman273]

I'm an astrobiologist, not a physics major! And besides, plate warping is common among ships of both classes.

And I'm a Navigator! Still, when have you ever heard of hull-plates warping?

[AwesomeStar]

And I'm a Navigator! Still, when have you ever heard of hull-plates warping?

It's just a common thing, same as in naval ships, I hear. Anyway, if you don't think it is just ship noise, perhaps we should be wary of something more sinister.

[AwesomeStar]

EDIT: Double Post.

Mod edit: Note that this is not the thing to do in the event of a double post, just leave the post as is.

Edited July 16, 2012 by Dragonator
Rule clarification

[LEGOman273]

It's just a common thing, same as in naval ships, I hear. Anyway, if you don't think it is just ship noise, perhaps we should be wary of something more sinister.

Naval ships? This is the Future, why haven't used navel ships in Centuries.

This was likely caused by a Day-Action. The only one that the Admiral would tell us about is a kill (as Brickdoctor said), so that must be it. Let's look around for dead bodies.

[AwesomeStar]

This was likely caused by a Day-Action. The only one that the Admiral would tell us about is a kill (as Brickdoctor said), so that must be it. Let's look around for dead bodies.

I see. Though this isn't a mystery game... of life, so I don't much see how we'd 'find' anything apart from the usual interrogation.

[LEGOman273]

It's just a common thing, same as in naval ships, I hear. Anyway, if you don't think it is just ship noise, perhaps we should be wary of something more sinister.

Naval ships? This is the Future, why haven't used navel ships in Centuries.

This was likely caused by a Day-Action. The only one that the Admiral would tell us about is a kill (as Brickdoctor said), so that must be it. Let's look around for dead bodies.

Sorry about the double-post Speak. ()

[Inconspicuous]

Wonderful night results, I see. I don't understand how townies could find so many different ways to appear genuinely scummy. I hope today will turn out better.

I think it's clear that the Fanon was a stunt to try and draw out the scum, which didn't work, but was a nice effort by a townie to try and help a team that had turned on him. That was some good future thinking right there.

Aha, that makes perfect sense! I was wondering why a member of the town would make a crazy claim like that. Thanks for that bit of analysis.

[Fugazi]

You know, if you're a Loyalist, you need to pay closer attention. There have been 4 kills and 3 different MO's. None of the theories that have been posited about the MO's are all that far out there. I can't understand why someone would suggest that the different MO's would belong to the same killer at this point unless you happen to know that's true.

No, I never suggested that there was only one killer. You're right though, there have been only three MOs, I had the cleaver in mind when I made the previous statement. What I was saying, because there was much conjecturing about who did what, is that we shouldn't put too much trust in the night reports or risk being misled. Are you suggesting that Ensign Pewter was actually killed by the same person who killed Ensign Campbell? Surely not. The Admiral repeatedly mentioned that we shouldn't rely on the night reports, and I'm quite confident that he's just trying to make it even more obvious that they're not to be looked at for clues. Let's not forget what happened in the simulation when the night recordings were taken too seriously.

[fhomess]

No, I never suggested that there was only one killer. You're right though, there have been only three MOs, I had the cleaver in mind when I made the previous statement. What I was saying, because there was much conjecturing about who did what, is that we shouldn't put too much trust in the night reports or risk being misled. Are you suggesting that Ensign Pewter was actually killed by the same person who killed Ensign Campbell? Surely not. The Admiral repeatedly mentioned that we shouldn't rely on the night reports, and I'm quite confident that he's just trying to make it even more obvious that they're not to be looked at for clues. Let's not forget what happened in the simulation when the night recordings were taken too seriously.

Sorry, I thought you were trying to suggest we've got too few killers for the MO's that we've seen, so we should disregard the MO's. I've just not seen that before. Pewter was the lynch candidate, so his death, however it happened, is unsurprising. I think perhaps we're just confusing what each other is saying.

At any rate, I'm frustrated by the lack of discussion today. It seems that we ought to have some more evidence to go on by now. Perhaps some people have been cleared that I'm unaware of. Some of those who said very little during the first couple of days have again said very little today as well. Yes, it's still not even lunchtime yet, but we're not going to catch the purists by waiting for them to tell us they're scum. With loyalists making mistakes like the ones Pewter and Campbell have made, we're not in good shape.

[Rufus]

What I was saying, because there was much conjecturing about who did what, is that we shouldn't put too much trust in the night reports or risk being misled.

That's true, but at the same time the 'night reports' have to make some narrative sense. For instance, it's reasonable to assume that kills with the same MO are the same killer (or, at least, team). In this case, we have assumed that the ray-gun kill is the vigilante, which seems to have been borne out by the day-thread discussion yesterday. It would be misleading, for example, for the killer of Robbins(?)/Peanuts to have been scum while that of Campbell to have been town. The day thread introduction is all the 'hard fact' most townies have to go on.

This isn't to say alternatives should be discounted entirely, but I think it is a reasonable assumption that the same killer killed Peanuts and Campbell, and is most likely a vigilante, making the kills of Mandel and Falcon most likely scum-kills (assuming no serial killer, which would be reasonable for a crew complement this size).

Which brings me to this:

Interesting choices for kills. I can understand that a Vig with no real idea of whom to target might kill Mandel because of the votes for him Yesterday, though there were more votes for Pewter. I am surprised that Robbins was killed, though. He is usually a quality member of the Town in these situations, so it makes some sense as a Scum kill, but he's not the most obvious choice for a metagame-kill.

The doctor here makes the opposite assumption, all the more interesting because ...

The raygun, I'm assuming, belongs to the vigliante like in the simulation. Other than a painfully obvious attempt to make his accusers seem like bad guys, I can't think of a much better reason to kill Mandel. Maybe they're just messing with our heads.

I can't think of a good reason for the scum to kill Mandel - as he was already under suspicion, would it not have been better to leave him alive as another way to waste a day's lynch? At the risk of making the good Admiral cry, is it possible he was killed because he knew the inner workings of the scum team from the simulation? If this is so, it suggests a number of things about the scum team in this reality.

This is all very WIFOM (curse you, Falcon, for making this the 'WIFOM' game! *shakes fist*) but there's a way to test the theory.

League of Purists (Scum) of the simulation known as Excalibur 1.0:

• Samantha 'Inconspicuous' York - Godfather
  
• Zachary 'Flipz' Jones - Killer
  
• Brian 'Dannylonglegs' Pewter - Protector
  
• Thomas 'VolcanicPanik' Hornby - Watcher
  
• Michael 'Brickdoctor' McAndrews - Blocker

Yes, there were only five of us, among twenty-three total participants, and we had no conversion ability, so we did suspect that there was a second Scum team. (or a significant number of Neutrals)

We have only the doctor's word for this. The only other person from this list still alive is Wheeler (Inconspicuous). Could it be that Mandel was killed to allow these two to say whatever they like about the scum actions?

The 'scum watcher' business only came up after it was suggested that the vigilante should kill Campbell. Scum watchers are unusual. If the scum really have a watcher, they'd have kept quiet and learned who the vigilante is. However, it would have been in scum's interest to allow Campbell to survive the night; that way, we'd waste today lynching him, and the vigilante would either not act, or be more likely to kill another townie.

Anyhoo, in the absence of any better information, I'm all for lynching Julius Burbank 'MD' today - partly to test this theory but mainly because of that scum/vigilante assumption which looks a lot like misdirection to me.

As a quick follow-up to this, it's interesting to note that both Burbank 'MD' and Wheeler where on the bandwagon for lynching Mandel on day one:

Ensign Pewter / Palathadric : 9 (Rufus, Dakar A, Scouts, Scubacarrot, AwesomeStar, Hinckley, Shadows, KingOfTheZempk, darkdragon, )

Lieutenant Commander Gordon / Scubacarrot : 2 (Masked Builder, Dannylonglegs)

Ensign Mandel / Dannylonglegs : 5 (Fugazi, CallMePie, Brickdoctor, Inconspicuous, fhomess)

Lieutenant Willis / KingOfTheZempk : 1 (Tamamono)

Ensign Campbell / Dakar A : 1 (Peanuts)

[Masked Builder]

@Hornby:

I'm sure that all of them did. We were lynching a Townie, and they knew that. It was a win-win situation for the Scum: join a bandwagon to avoid suspicion, and ensure the death of a Townie.

I'm not Hornby, did you mean him or me?

[Brickdoctor]

This isn't to say alternatives should be discounted entirely, but I think it is a reasonable assumption that the same killer killed Peanuts and Campbell, and is most likely a vigilante, making the kills of Mandel and Falcon most likely scum-kills (assuming no serial killer, which would be reasonable for a crew complement this size).

Which brings me to this:

The doctor here makes the opposite assumption, all the more interesting because ...

I can't think of a good reason for the scum to kill Mandel - as he was already under suspicion, would it not have been better to leave him alive as another way to waste a day's lynch? At the risk of making the good Admiral cry, is it possible he was killed because he knew the inner workings of the scum team from the simulation? If this is so, it suggests a number of things about the scum team in this reality.

This is all very WIFOM (curse you, Falcon, for making this the 'WIFOM' game! *shakes fist*) but there's a way to test the theory.

I'm really not sure how to respond to this, since, as you say, you're accusing me with WIFOM, assuming that Mandel was killed by Scum to make it look like he wasn't killed by Scum...I guess. As you say, there's no real good reason for the Scum to kill Mandel, but...

We have only the doctor's word for this. The only other person from this list still alive is Wheeler (Inconspicuous). Could it be that Mandel was killed to allow these two to say whatever they like about the scum actions?

The 'scum watcher' business only came up after it was suggested that the vigilante should kill Campbell. Scum watchers are unusual. If the scum really have a watcher, they'd have kept quiet and learned who the vigilante is. However, it would have been in scum's interest to allow Campbell to survive the night; that way, we'd waste today lynching him, and the vigilante would either not act, or be more likely to kill another townie.

Anyhoo, in the absence of any better information, I'm all for lynching Julius Burbank 'MD' today - partly to test this theory but mainly because of that scum/vigilante assumption which looks a lot like misdirection to me.

As a quick follow-up to this, it's interesting to note that both Burbank 'MD' and Wheeler where on the bandwagon for lynching Mandel on day one:

That...actually makes sense. It's wrong, but it makes sense. However, I do think that, considering how many Loyalists are dead and how many Purists are(n't) dead, it's a little risky to lynch someone to confirm his information. I also don't see how you can think that my assuming that Mandel was killed by a Vig is misdirection. Not only does it not make sense if Mandel was killed by Scum, but why would the Vig kill Robbins? As you say, there's no reason for the Scum to kill Mandel, and it did make some sense for the Vig to kill him, and we hadn't seen any killing weapons outside of the simulation yet, and Robbins' being killed made sense as a metagame-kill while Mandel's being killed made sense as a Vig-kill based on the votes, so I looked at the reasons that the two could have been killed, and assumed what made the most sense.

[LEGOman273]

I'm not Hornby, did you mean him or me?

I was showing your post (to back up my statement), while commenting on what Hornby said. Sorry for the confusion.

However, I do think that, considering how many Loyalists are dead and how many Purists are(n't) dead, it's a little risky to lynch someone to confirm his information.

It's very risky, and rather foolish. Burbank would make a good Cop-target.

[Dragonator]

Interesting analysis Lt Daly, those science degrees must come in handy. I have to say you're one of the few people I feel is making some sense so far in our discussions, instead of making hollow and intentionally provocative accusations without really thinking about what has happened. I can tell you have put some thought into your conclusions. Particularly in regard to killing off Mandel early, this would make sense.

I think the analysis of the kills so far is where we are encountering the most difficulty. As has been noted, the Purists had no reason to take out Ensign Campbell, which would indicate that he was killed by the vigilante. This is also the most likely killer of Ensign Robbins. At this point I would urge us to be cautious of taking the night recordings at face value, as it has been constantly noted by our Admiral that the ship's normally exemplary security system has fallen in to some disrepair now that it is being handled by the amateurs he calls a crew. I would however say that, unless proved otherwise, we can probably assume that the killers will act consistently.

It was Da Bomb !

No need to worry, I'm still here.

[LEGOman273]

Interesting analysis Lt Daly, those science degrees must come in handy. I have to say you're one of the few people I feel is making some sense so far in our discussions, instead of making hollow and intentionally provocative accusations without really thinking about what has happened. I can tell you have put some thought into your conclusions. Particularly in regard to killing off Mandel early, this would make sense.

I think the analysis of the kills so far is where we are encountering the most difficulty. As has been noted, the Purists had no reason to take out Ensign Campbell, which would indicate that he was killed by the vigilante. This is also the most likely killer of Ensign Robbins. At this point I would urge us to be cautious of taking the night recordings at face value, as it has been constantly noted by our Admiral that the ship's normally exemplary security system has fallen in to some disrepair now that it is being handled by the amateurs he calls a crew. I would however say that, unless proved otherwise, we can probably assume that the killers will act consistently.

No need to worry, I'm still here.

This makes me suspicious of Harper. All of this text, and no new ideas, insight, or suggestions; just repetition of what the others have said. It was mentioned (not sure who it was), and I have seen, that Harper has not spoken up much. This, coupled with the quote, makes me suspect him of being a Scum that is trying to fly under the RADAR evade the scanners.

If so, it's not working.

[Rufus]

I also don't see how you can think that my assuming that Mandel was killed by a Vig is misdirection. Not only does it not make sense if Mandel was killed by Scum, but why would the Vig kill Robbins?

This:

And what about whoever Peanuts was playing? What would a vigilante have to gain from killing him? That was a vigilante, right? I think it was last time. Although it could also be a second scum team or an SK.

I have him down in my notes for "dividing the votes further at the end of the day." Maybe that has something to do with it. Although, the vote was for Ensign Jack Campbell, who is the person I found the most suspicious. Perhaps the Scum wanted to silence Peanuts for something he was right about:

Admittedly, Falcon sits on the fence a little here, but if the Campbell kill is anything to go by, it does seem like the vigilante was acting along with Falcon night two, so it's possible on night one, too. And now we know that the Campbell accusation can't have been a reason.

and Robbins' being killed made sense as a metagame-kill

Really? Wouldn't have been my first choice. No disrespect to Robbins, but there are greater threats to the scum.

However, I do think that, considering how many Loyalists are dead and how many Purists are(n't) dead, it's a little risky to lynch someone to confirm his information.

We have to lynch. That is Town's best weapon. I would rather make a lynch based on better information, but until that information is forthcoming, we have to make do with what we've got.

[Brickdoctor]

This:

Admittedly, Falcon sits on the fence a little here, but if the Campbell kill is anything to go by, it does seem like the vigilante was acting along with Falcon night two, so it's possible on night one, too. And now we know that the Campbell accusation can't have been a reason.

Okay, that does make sense if the Vig was working with Falcon...which in my experience wouldn't be unusual, despite the fact that I don't think it would be a very smart move to trust him that early.

Really? Wouldn't have been my first choice. No disrespect to Robbins, but there are greater threats to the scum.

I never said it was the best choice - I said at the beginning of Day Two that he wasn't the most obvious choice for a metagame-kill, in fact. I said that it would make sense.

We have to lynch. That is Town's best weapon. I would rather make a lynch based on better information, but until that information is forthcoming, we have to make do with what we've got.

Fair enough. If you want to lynch me to confirm my information, I can't really argue with the logic, since at this point there is no way for me to prove that I was telling the truth about the info, given that your theory assumes that Wheeler is Scum, too.

[Scouty]

Admittedly, Falcon sits on the fence a little here, but if the Campbell kill is anything to go by, it does seem like the vigilante was acting along with Falcon night two, so it's possible on night one, too. And now we know that the Campbell accusation can't have been a reason.

I don't think Falcon was connected with the vigilante. He hasn't alluded to the fact in thread or in my private discussions with him; plus, he has been pretty transparent on who he's been in contact with. Furthermore, if he was working with the vigilante, I doubt he would also ask publicly in the thread for the vigilante to kill Campbell, which by the end of the day, he was against of such an idea. If he was in private conversation, I'm sure he'd have done more to convince the Vig to go after a different target, which clearly did not happen (unless it was the scum who went after Dakar, which I don't see any motivation in doing so).

I guess my point is, is that the Vig appears to keep going after the most suspicious target before the lynchee. It's not a bad strategy, but it hasn't done us very well, either. The Vig going after a much less obvious person did benefit the town in the simulation, though.

[Shadows]

Something has been nagging at me for a while, so I want to throw it out there. Ensign Pewter was using the strangest method of finding the scum that I can imagine, going so far as to impersonate one to try to trick them into confessing, thinking they would be joining forces. It clearly didn't work, but why not? By the time Harriet exposed him, he almost had enough credibility to be believed, I know we certainly believed him and were sending him on his way to death. Why didn't the scum believe it? If they had, I'm sure one would have made contact at that point and tried to at least secure the other scum he claimed to be with, yet that doesn't appear to have happened. To me, that means one thing, something in his claim was impossible and revealed that he was lying. So let's review what he said ...

Hink, since it looks like I will be lynched, I may as well come clean. I am part of a second faction. There's only two of us. We're called The Fanon. Not sure why. But our job is to find the other scum team, and if we do, we merge and they get an additional action. Just to let you know what you're up against...or missing if you're a Purist. I've sent this to a couple people, hoping to connect with the Purists. Your constant "WIFOM" made me think that you could be purist as it looks like you're trying to undermine everyone's theories and confuse everyone. If you're not a purist, well then I'm making the whole thing up. You can appreciate the position I'm in, I hope.

The weird part is that nothing there is that hard to believe, certainly not the kind of thing they should have known not to believe. Why didn't it work? Hell, if I'd received it, I would have been tempted to try playing along to learn who his ally was, so I'm even left to wonder why the loyalists who received it didn't try that. I'm glad they didn't, it would have confused things even more, but still...

At the same time, what the megabluck is wifom and why do people keep saying it? I swear, someone has been making up new things while I wasn't looking, probably in other simulations I didn't participate in.

I don't like it, I don't like it one bit. I think I need some warm milk now, and bourbon. And kittens. Turn up the heat, it's freezing in here. (that's my impression of those old people who complain about the latest fads because they're old and don't like change, which is basically what I'm doing about wifom, but seriously, wtf is that?)

[swils]

WIFOM, Wine In Front Of Me: Refer to some of Campbell's/Dakar's defense for examples.

"A scum would have to be an idiot to do this, so because I did it, I must obviously not be scum!"

[Shadows]

WIFOM, Wine In Front Of Me: Refer to some of Campbell's/Dakar's defense for examples.

Idiotic.

*throws another bourbon soaked kitten in the fire* Toasty!

[Waterbrick Down]

...I cannot believe we didn't get a single scum. Unless someone's got leads, Rockford looks like the way to go today.

How in the world are we so certain of this. Rockford came forward with the case against Pewter, if he was scum I see no reason to bring up the case unless he was really offensive in leading the charge. Pass the wine, please.

Dang. Well that was just one big waste of a day... The scum probably voted with the crowd, though I could be wrong.

umm... considering that 18 of 21 voted against Pewter I'd say this was a surity and I can't see why you would say otherwise, enough wishy washy from you, your posts have come across as always sparse and merely showing up to either vote or comment on someone being dead. Surely you must have something to add.

Well this is just great

It's clear from last night's events that absolutely nothing that we thought we knew was actually true, and we're back to square one once again. I'm intrigued by the discussion going on though - it doesn't seem to be clear who exactly killed who last night. I'm guessing the vig messed up, and the SK is actively on the loose.

It's just been suggested earlier today, so I took it into account. Personally I agree with you, a serial killer seems unlikely. I suspect a very strong scum team.

In the words of a Commander Gordon, you're flip-flopping and agreeing with everyone has been duly noted.

I'm really not sure how to respond to this, since, as you say, you're accusing me with WIFOM, assuming that Mandel was killed by Scum to make it look like he wasn't killed by Scum...I guess. As you say, there's no real good reason for the Scum to kill Mandel, but...

That...actually makes sense. It's wrong, but it makes sense. However, I do think that, considering how many Loyalists are dead and how many Purists are(n't) dead, it's a little risky to lynch someone to confirm his information...

Is this a masked threat, we have to lynch to confirm information in the leau of night action results. We currently stand at 18 strong, even a strong scum team would have somewhere around 6 members (assuming there is only 1, which I'll discuss later), if we eliminate another townie and assume worst comes to worst then we'll be at 15 which is 9 vs 6 still savable and I should hope by that time we would have something a little more concrete then just purported theories instead of night action results.

I'm sure the scum are Wallowing in their own joy right now. We really need to be careful today. I think all of us definitely screwed up. I wouldn't be surprised if the scum even led lynches. Maybe maybe not. We need to analyse everything now.

Are you trying to lay low? A glance back at your comments as well yields only statements about how careful we must be and how we must analyze everything, yet we have yet to see any analysis at all from you. If you mean to help then please read through the things that have been said and formulate some suspicions instead of trying to appear rational minded and cautious.

As to the entire Pewter scandal, I agree that he was probably trying to out Falcon as a scum and due to the fact that it would seem like none of the real scum did contact him, my guess is that we're up against 1 team composed of probably 6 or so members and that due to the size of the group they figured out that there couldn't be another faction. Alternatively, Pewter and Falcon could have been working together during the last few moments of the day in an attempt to get the scum's attention and Falcon blabbed his sting operation to someone he thought he could trust. I tend to lean more towards the first scenario as it seems the simplest given how the scenario worked itself out yesterday.

[Inconspicuous]

Is it possible he was killed because he knew the inner workings of the scum team from the simulation?

It's an interesting theory that you've brought forth, but I'm sorry to say that you're wrong. I can confirm that the information published by the doctor is 100% correct. I know you have nothing to believe besides our word, but don't make the mistake of voting one of us out for trying to share what we know. Besides, it would be silly to kill Mandel just so "we" could spread misinformation. How would we know that Mandel hadn't told someone in private how the scum team was organized in the simulation? We could easily get called out on the claim.

Anyhoo, in the absence of any better information, I'm all for lynching Julius Burbank 'MD' today - partly to test this theory but mainly because of that scum/vigilante assumption which looks a lot like misdirection to me.

I don't agree with the theory testing, but if you have other reasons to lynch the doctor, then I won't stand in your way.

As a quick follow-up to this, it's interesting to note that both Burbank 'MD' and Wheeler where on the bandwagon for lynching Mandel on day one:

Also notice that I didn't just jump on the bandwagon - I actually wrote out a number of logical accusations against him! Hopefully you can see that my suspicion was genuine.