The Forest Mafia: Day Two

[Walter Kovacs]

Somehow I don't think the Demon Legion would have bothered with Edgar if the Arsonist is neutral.

That's what I thought, but I threw in Edgar as a target just for completeness sake.

Without any visual confirmation of what happened at Edgar's house, it is tough to decipher what went on. We could have had two or more benevolent Villagers helping Edgar out and no scum even in the area. Or the scum could have targetted him and he was suitably protected. *shrug*

Only those that were there can tell us for certain what went on. And I doubt that they are going to tell us openly what went on. So it's on to supposition and assumptions. And we all know what happens when you assume.

[Bob]

What is probably the most interesting scenario is if Scum tried to kill Edgar last night but were blocked, then the blocker now knows who the night killer is! The other less juicy scenario is that Edgar had protection (more likely) which thwarted the murder attempt.

Look back, who didn't vote for Edgar? This is most likely his protector. We must also assume that this protector is not allied with the town. What sane town protector would protect Edgar, a person who we almost voted out yesterday?

[Walter Kovacs]

Then you don't believe Edgar is scum anymore?

I for one don't think he is scum anymore. The evidence was weak to begin with, and now we have been shown that there is in fact an Arsonist amongst us. And it would behoove us to rid ourselves of him as quickly as possible. The Legonnaires will do a fine enough job killing us (when they are done adding to their numbers/aren't being blocked/aren't attacking proteected targets) without an Arsonist adding to the death toll.

Look back, who didn't vote for Edgar? This is most likely his protector. We must also assume that this protector is not allied with the town. What sane town protector would protect Edgar, a person who we almost voted out yesterday?

Half the town resisted the urge to vote for edgar, and eight more came to their senses and retracted their vote (myself included ). That's a pretty large pool of people to look at.

And wht sort of logic leads you to believe that Edgar's possible protector isn't aligned with the town? Based on Edgar's defense, he seems useful to the town while an Arsonist is running around loose. Why wouldn't a Villager want to protect him.

[Fugazi]

I for one don't think he is scum anymore. The evidence was weak to begin with, and now we have been shown that there is in fact an Arsonist amongst us. And it would behoove us to rid ourselves of him as quickly as possible. The Legonnaires will do a fine enough job killing us (when they are done adding to their numbers/aren't being blocked/aren't attacking proteected targets) without an Arsonist adding to the death toll.

And wht sort of logic leads you to believe that Edgar's possible protector isn't aligned with the town? Based on Edgar's defense, he seems useful to the town while an Arsonist is running around loose. Why wouldn't a Villager want to protect him.

Well some people, Kenda among them, appear to be thinking that Edgar is actually the Arsonist, perhaps because he knew the existence of such a monster. Not that I personally adhere to this view.

[Professor Flitwick]

Look back, who didn't vote for Edgar? This is most likely his protector. We must also assume that this protector is not allied with the town. What sane town protector would protect Edgar, a person who we almost voted out yesterday?

I would've; he seemed innocent enough to me, and he was almost voted out for a stupid reason, that could've very well been attributed to six other people. His protector, if one protected him at all, is very likely innocent, and your not doing them any favors by trying to point out who they could be to everyone.

[Walter Kovacs]

Well some people, Kenda among them, appear to be thinking that Edgar is actually the Arsonist, perhaps because he knew the existence of such a monster. Not that I personally adhere to this view.

I will admit that the thought did cross my mind. But for now I believe Edgar is on our side.

[I Scream Clone]

So lets go over this.

1. Edgar knew of an arsonist somehow.
   
2. Edgar isn't the arsonist, this still doesn't mean he isn't scum though, but probably not likely as the arsonist wasn't stopped/killed. However he didn't know who the arsonist was.
   
3. Edgar was worried that the arsonist would strike unless he/someone else could stop the arsonist.
   
4. Two people or more visited Edgar last night. Probably a killer (Edgar is looking less guilty) and a blocker/protector, or even an investigator.
   
5. So I'm willing to think he was investigated last night, or protected from being killed.
   

How are we looking so far?

Seems to make sense?

[Quarryman]

So lets go over this.

1. Edgar knew of an arsonist somehow.
   
2. Edgar isn't the arsonist, this still doesn't mean he isn't scum though, but probably not likely as the arsonist wasn't stopped/killed. However he didn't know who the arsonist was.
   
3. Edgar was worried that the arsonist would strike unless he/someone else could stop the arsonist.
   
4. Two people or more visited Edgar last night. Probably a killer (Edgar is looking less guilty) and a blocker/protector, or even an investigator.
   
5. So I'm willing to think he was investigated last night, or protected from being killed.
   

How are we looking so far?

Seems to make sense?

It does make some sense, yes. If he is, as he claims, someone who can protect against the Arsonist he would know about the existence of an Arsonist. Unfortunately to protect he needs quite a bit of luck in protecting the right person, but still, if we believe this he's definitely an asset for the Village.

As for who visited him it would make sense that one of them was an Investigator seeing as many thought he was suspicious yesterday, so he would be a likely target for an Investigator. Though this might not match with him also being targeted for a kill, unless he had some protection on his own not depending on someone else actively protecting him. (like the orb Booker had, I think it's quite likely that it would have protected him against conventional harm, but just didn't work against fire).

So, I hope one of his visitors was an Investigator, even if that Investigator can't come forward openly (that would be very stupid, they would become a huge target) it does at least mean someone out there knows something more about him.

[Scouty]

Booker! Nooooo ! Now I'm the only bear left in this town .

There is a lot for me to digest today and I'm having a hard time thinking straight.

I'm with the opinion that the arsonist might be a neutral. As far as I know, what villager would want to burn down their own village!?

So lets go over this.

[snip]

It makes sense, and I agree that Edgar is looking less guilty, but I'm not sure about guilt free. It seems like the mere bit of info we can go on is from voting behaviour from yesterday...

I bet, however, Edgar was not targeted only by the good people last night. Perhaps he will be targeted again tonight?

I'm at a loss

[I Scream Clone]

Another curious side point is the fact that Booker was killed after voting for Edgar. This seems like an obvious point that may have been missed. It could be a ploy to make us think Edgar is Scum thus forcing a vote for him today?

[Lord Arjay]

Oh dear. It is very sad that one of us has died, poor Booker - he did not deserve such a cruel fate. The method of killing does suggest that the killer is not friendly and from previous info, I'd agree that the Arsonist is most likely a neutral.

As others have said, with the threat of a random death and added scum powers the best course of action is clearly to convict someone today. I have a couple of people in mind, though I will wait and see if anything reveals itself before the time for voting arrives.

I don't particularly care for the discussion about possible shenanigans surrounding Edgar last night. Any number of things could have happened and without a way of knowing for sure, I don't see how speculating about it is very useful.

Finally, I do wonder whether Lazlo will have something to say today.

[def]

Yes, I too was a little surprised Booker was targeted, but I'm sorry we lost a villager. I'm not sure I understand the last sentence, Helen; would you care to explain what you meant?

The village should have a bodyguard/protector of sorts, and it's a shame that Booker didn't get it. I would rather Booker wasn't burnt to a crisp. Wouldn't you?

[Ricecracker]

What a shame Booker's dead! It's unfortunate that his orb didn't save him, though hopefully it'll be redistributed.

It appears that we do need to lynch someone today, but I'm no closer to knowing who. I'm definitely more convinced of Edgar's innocence, but I still trust no one.

[iamded]

Not Booker! After what happened last night I thought I was the one who had been targeted, and since I'm still here I figured we'd all be safe and sound... I guess there were multiple people out hunting last night, and if Edgar was also targeted, that means at least 3 people were out. From what I've heard thus far, it seems an Arsonist targeted our beloved Booker Bear, a horrible demonic thing targeted me, and therefore if someone went after Edgar it must have been a town vigilante. That's a bad vigilante! Bad! You don't target townies, especially if it sounds like they're fire-fighters...

Now, maybe I can explain the flashes of light last night. I'm no writer, but plays seem to be popular, so...

The Curious Incident of the Crow in the Night-Time

Horace: My, what scary demons. Perhaps I should go and comfort the ladies, I'm sure they'd like Horace there with them to keep them safe. Much more than that stupid crocodile at least. No, best head straight home and go to bed, where I can dream of the village ladies, and how much better I am than Cameron Crocodile...

<Horace hops in bed and falls soundly asleep. Suddenly->

Evil Crow Guy: Nyaar! I am evil, and am breaking into your house! Muhuhahaha! My laugh is an evil laugh! Also, I have a scary sickle!

<A flash of red light emanates from Horace's house to signal a demonic night action (I assume*)>

Horace: A-ha! I have just the thing for you! That kind Baker and his wife gave me this bag of magic powder! Suck it!

<Horace throws the bag, like a hero or whatever, at the horrible Evil Crow Guy and watches as the powder burns through it's flesh. Assumingly*, a flash of green light emanates from the house, to signal a righteous night action.>

Evil Crow Guy: Argh, it burns! But you're not the only one with a trick up your sleeve! Nyaar!

<A second flash of red light, which Horace definitely sees this time, and suddenly the powder disappears from Evil Crow Guy's flesh. Another demonic night action?!>

Horace: Oh, shoot. Guess I'm dead now, huh?

Evil Crow Guy: No! My flesh hurts, and I'm rather put off, so instead of killing you I think I'll just flee.

<Evil Crow Guy flees. Horace picks up his bag of powder, happy that he now know what it does.>

Horace: Well, all right. The demons struck at me, and I struck back! That must mean there'll be no deaths tonight! Huzzah!

Although... that also means there's an evil crow guy out there, with protection...

<Meanwhile an arsonist burns down Booker's house, just to make everything worse... >

*I say this because I only saw the last flash of red light with my own eyes. The other two flashes make sense where I placed them though, and denote the conflicting night actions.

Alright, I know, it's no match for Harriet's plays, and it didn't use code names, but still...

If the book of them evil-baddies was found in a burned down house, he probably isn't working with them. Most likely a town vigilante who didn't get things quite right.

Or perhaps the arsonist was a neutral? That's most likely, according to the book MafiaScum. I can't see an innocent townie dancing in joy as one of our cuddly friends burns to death...

I have a theory about Booker's magic doohickey. Perhaps it could only protect him from demonic creatures, and not from deranged citizens?

Also, it's sounding pretty heavily like Edgar is some sort of fire-fighter, whose purpose is to take down this arsonist. If so, we should keep the protection on him, lest his house burn down.

[Shadows]

I don't think there's much to add to what's been already said, this is just awful. Poor stinky adorable bear never even got to live ...

Ok, so just based on the intro, I feel like we must have been given some clues in all those words. Why was there a werewolf reference? Surely we aren't facing them too, so maybe it means something else that we need to notice? Why a late arrival when only one thing seems to have happened? Why Booker and not Edgar, anyway? Was he on to someone who wanted to silence him or just an innocent victim? Wouldn't a serial killer go after the person trying to stop him if he knew their identity?

It's all questions and no answers. I'm sure you've all considered some of these same things, and I think we need to figure them out before making our decision for the day. I know we also need to hear from anyone who has learned something helpful. Combining all of that, I believe we can make a good decision today and turn this tragedy into something good. Booker would want it that way.

[Zepher]

That's quite a change of tone from yesterday...

We would not be penalized for not voting yesterday silly. Now we are... my tone changed because the circumstances changed, I hope that's allowed!

Another curious side point is the fact that Booker was killed after voting for Edgar. This seems like an obvious point that may have been missed. It could be a ploy to make us think Edgar is Scum thus forcing a vote for him today?

Seems too obvious of a set up honey. But never discount it I suppose.

The village should have a bodyguard/protector of sorts, and it's a shame that Booker didn't get it. I would rather Booker wasn't burnt to a crisp. Wouldn't you?

That, is a fair point that I skipped. I was just throwing out an idea. I was simply stating that the arsonist revealed the book, and therefore was not demon legion.

Not Booker! After what happened last night I thought I was the one who had been targeted, and since I'm still here I figured we'd all be safe and sound... I guess there were multiple people out hunting last night, and if Edgar was also targeted, that means at least 3 people were out. From what I've heard thus far, it seems an Arsonist targeted our beloved Booker Bear, a horrible demonic thing targeted me, and therefore if someone went after Edgar it must have been a town vigilante. That's a bad vigilante! Bad! You don't target townies, especially if it sounds like they're fire-fighters...

I have a theory about Booker's magic doohickey. Perhaps it could only protect him from demonic creatures, and not from deranged citizens?

Those both point more closely towards a neutral arsonist. Also, it clears people at Edgers of being scum. Or at least the scum killers. Also, I'm glad you survived the night cutie0-wutie! I was worried about you.

Why was there a werewolf reference?

I wouldn't read into it too much. I think out esteemed Monk was smiply poking a little fun at one of the characters in the book.

Oh my. In my response to our dear Hippo, I'm afraid I mis-spoke. Such a scatter brain. I meant to say that I don't know how the protector would have known to help Booker, especially since Edger seemed the more likely target. My response about a fair point was to someone else who said that a villager would probably not like to dance while another person burned.

[CorneliusMurdock]

Well, Horace, it's nice to know that last night wasn't as bad as it could have been. There's always a chance you could be lying, but your story would explain the absence of a Demon Legion kill.

Perhaps the scum knew that Edgar would most likely be protected, and decided to prevent him from catching the arsonist instead of killing him while going after a person they did not think would be protected. While I think the arsonist is not working directly with the scum, the Legion would like nothing more than to see us chase our tails and any distraction or roadblock that keeps us from catching them, they will exploit.

Why Horace, though? Did anyone come sniffing around privately that may have thought you needed sent to the glue factory? That might be a lead.

[iamded]

Why Horace, though? Did anyone come sniffing around privately that may have thought you needed sent to the glue factory? That might be a lead.

I honestly have no idea why I was targeted. I assume the Demon Legion would have wanted to cause confusion by going after an unimportant townie as opposed to someone we'd expect them to go after, and having no knowledge of my magic powder bag, they went after me.

The only person I contacted privately yesterday was Bristol Bunny, asking why she thought I was suspicious. She stated it was probably because of the tally I made, with reasonable reasoning, and that she supposed she could trust me. I don't think she would have targeted me...

So lets go over this.

<snip>

How are we looking so far?

Seems to make sense?

That makes perfect sense. I looked back at the things Edgar said in his defence, and you've summed it up well. I realised when he said, "At the end of the day, when the 2 forces combined, we, Fabulanders are dead." he was referring to the Arsonist and the Demon Legion. Proof that the Arsonist is neutral lies in his words, "Because past games of life tell me that if one who is neutral by nature have the option to combine forces with the evil faction.".

"Houses don't burnt down for any reason... " also points to the fact that the house that burnt down at the very beginning of this was the work of the Arsonist. I think we need him to stop said Arsonist, as he said when faced with his demise, "And wild fire will continue to rampage and no one will ever have a chance to stop the forest fire anymore." I suppose people could not believe him and think that he himself is the Arsonist, which would also explain all his knowledge. You'd think that if this were the case, the real Fire-fighter would have stepped forward and said Edgar was lying. Or perhaps the real Fire-fighter would want to stay quiet and deal with Edgar the Arsonist discreetly...

But I'm still now convinced Edgar is our Fire-fighting pal, and we need to keep him alive. I could be wrong, however. One can never really be sure of anything in these games...

Sigh, I'm talking too much. I have one more thing to add however.

There's always a chance you could be lying, but your story would explain the absence of a Demon Legion kill.

Honestly, it didn't occur to me that people might think I'm lying. However, it's likely the Demon Legion will strike eventually, and if someone turns up killed by a sickle, and/or there are signs the killer was a crow, you'll know I was telling the truth. Of course, I hope it won't come to this, but really, what are the chances no one will fall to the Demon Legion?

[Rick]

Honestly, it didn't occur to me that people might think I'm lying. However, it's likely the Demon Legion will strike eventually, and if someone turns up killed by a sickle, and/or there are signs the killer was a crow, you'll know I was telling the truth. Of course, I hope it won't come to this, but really, what are the chances no one will fall to the Demon Legion?

Sure, you could be lying and trying to hide that Edgar was in fact attacked by a member of the Demon Legion. It was suggested he was watched earlier, which would reveal the identities of the people who targeted Edgar... If you'd be a member of the Demon Legion yourself you might even know about the kill MO to make your story look more credible. I'm inclined to believe you for now though.

If this is true, this would leave us without much to go on, because you just know you were attacked but not by who.

But I'm still hoping all the people who apparently targeted Edgar can give us something to go on. There is still the possibility that they blocked him if they believe he is indeed the firefighter.

Oh, and keep working on your play-writing skills... you'll get there eventually.

[Inconspicuous]

Morning everyone! I'm afraid my apples were shuffled around in last night's confusion, but if anyone wants one I can pull out a few clean ones.

This maniacal arsonist is quite frightening. To think that one of us innocent, furry creatures could do such a horrible thing...

From what I've heard thus far, it seems an Arsonist targeted our beloved Booker Bear, a horrible demonic thing targeted me, and therefore if someone went after Edgar it must have been a town vigilante. That's a bad vigilante! Bad! You don't target townies, especially if it sounds like they're fire-fighters...

I completely agree with you, Horace. As I've caught up with today's discussion, I've come to similar conclusions. The only problem is that I'm lost on who to vote for, even thought we must today.

My ears and eyes are open, so when the time comes, I'll have to make a decision.

[iamded]

I'm afraid my apples were shuffled around in last night's confusion, but if anyone wants one I can pull out a few clean ones.

Oh, yes please!

The only problem is that I'm lost on who to vote for, even thought we must today.

Yes, definitely. Yesterday I thought there wouldn't be a penalty for failing to convict, so I wasn't too worried when no conviction was reached. While this was true, it seems our resident monk used his one-time demon stopping move, and he won't be able to do it again. Therefore, we must reach a conviction today. If only we knew who was targeting Edgar last night...

So, what if the Demon Legion scumbags have an attacker, protector, and blocker. The attacker targets me last night, the protector protects the attacker (explaining why my there was a red flash disintegrating my magic powder from him), and the blocker blocks Edgar, preventing him from attempting to block the neutral pyromaniac fire-bug. So maybe the Arsonist has already teamed up with the Demon Legion, but I can't see how he'd manage to do so. How could one find out who the other was? It doesn't really make sense. But I'm reminded of what Edgar said, about the two teaming up to take down the town...

And my suggestion that the Demon Legion blocked Edgar is backed up by Brigit Bunny saying how there were many people visiting Edgar. Perhaps there was another townie investigating him, or peeping in on him, or something...

Man, I really like leaving sentences trailing off, huh...

[badboytje88]

So, what if the Demon Legion scumbags have an attacker, protector, and blocker. The attacker targets me last night, the protector protects the attacker (explaining why my there was a red flash disintegrating my magic powder from him), and the blocker blocks Edgar, preventing him from attempting to block the neutral pyromaniac fire-bug. So maybe the Arsonist has already teamed up with the Demon Legion, but I can't see how he'd manage to do so. How could one find out who the other was? It doesn't really make sense. But I'm reminded of what Edgar said, about the two teaming up to take down the town...

And my suggestion that the Demon Legion blocked Edgar is backed up by Brigit Bunny saying how there were many people visiting Edgar. Perhaps there was another townie investigating him, or peeping in on him, or something...

Oh Horace I'm so glad to see you survived. Too bad you weren't able to identify the Devil Demon Dude who attacked you... Your story makes sense. If the attacker was protected against your magic powder, that indeed must mean that there is at least a protector and an attacker.

I for one don't think that the arsonist has been able to team up with the Devil Demon Dudes. If he is a neutral he probably would not have been given the identity of the Devil Demon Dudes. So I highly doubt that he managed to find out who they are in one day. Same goes for the Devil Demon Dudes finding out who the arsonist is.

[iamded]

Too bad you weren't able to identify the Devil Demon Dude who attacked you...

That's just the thing, it was a crow. However there are no crows among us, so either the scum don a disguise when they attack, or they have someone/thing else do their dirty work... Which would make identifying the attacker a tad difficult.

[Rufus]

The village should have a bodyguard/protector of sorts, and it's a shame that Booker didn't get it. I would rather Booker wasn't burnt to a crisp. Wouldn't you?

Yes, Helen, I would. I thought that's what you meant; you just didn't say it very clearly in your original statement. However, it looks as though regular protection wouldn't have saved him anyway - Edgar says he's the only one who can stop the arsonist, and Booker's blue orb didn't work.

I enjoyed Horace's little play - keep working on them, big boy! We can't assume that all three flashes of light came from your house, though, when you only witnessed one of them. I'm inclined to believe your story - sure, you would likely know the demon MO if you were scum, but why then reveal that information at all?

[Eskallon]

Sorry everyone, but I don't believe one bit of that megablocks Play. It was a good play but makes no sense, here is why:

1. So the baker and his wife gave you some magic powder, then ran off before telling you what it was for. Expecting you to just use it and hope a demon attacks you so you are saved-megablocks.

2. Another batch of powder hits the demon but with a flash of red light. Well once again this statement makes no sense, why would someone evil among us do this to their own demon? -megablocks

3. Having done this the Demon decides not to kill you?

4. On top of these three reasons you were able to see the whole thing and what happened in detail, so unless you have two night actions (this and the Magic Powder) which being two so useful night actions which I doubt you really shouldn't have a clue about exactly what happened to him last night.

5. Well, most of us suspect that the Demon Legion tried to kill Edgar the Elephant last night and seen as he knows who targeted him last night one of them would likely be the killer. Your play conflicts this and draws attention away from the fact someone here may have the name of a killer.

Vote: Horace Horse (Iamded)

My evidence is above and I urge you to look at my points carefully, especially point 5. I truly believe he is trying to drive us to a dead end and draw attention away from the fact that someone here knows the name of a killer.

Yours

Pennie Pig